The Knicks have the luxury of sitting back and watching the other Eastern Conference semifinal play out to learn their next opponent in the conference finals.
The Pistons and Cavaliers are tied 2-2 — both teams have won their two home games.
But who would the Knicks rather face? There are arguments for either. Let’s break it down:
The Knicks lost all three regular-season matchups against the Pistons, and it wasn’t even close — their closest defeat was by 15 points. The other two were by 31 and 38 points.
They were completely outmuscled by the physical Pistons defense and interior presence.
But it’s important to remember how often the regular season does not translate to the postseason.
They are pretty one dimensional offensively. Everything revolves around Cade Cunningham, and they lack secondary scorers who can create their own shot.
Jalen Duren has arguably been the biggest underperformer of these playoffs — his regular-season averages of 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds are down to 10.2 points and 8.5 rebounds in the postseason. Ausar Thompson is extremely limited as a scorer. Duncan Robinson is purely a catch-and-shoot option and nearly useless when he’s inside the arc or has to create for himself. Tobias Harris has had some big games this postseason, but he shouldn’t scare the Knicks.
And the Knicks, between OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges (who shut down Tyrese Maxey in the second round), have good options to guard Cunningham and force others to beat them.
Between Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, the Cavaliers have a bit more offensive firepower and a more high-octane scoring punch.
The Knicks dominated the Hawks and 76ers in the paint. Even with Duren’s struggles and their overall inconsistency, the Pistons’ inside defense has been superb. They’ve given up just 39.1 points in the paint this postseason — the fewest in the NBA entering Tuesday. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have given up the third most at 50.2 paint points per game.
The Cavaliers have a former Defensive Player of the Year in Evan Mobley at center, but he should have nightmares about the Knicks tormenting him in the first round in 2023. It’s become obvious how important Karl-Anthony Towns is to the Knicks offense — he’d probably rather deal with the skinnier Mobley than the stronger Duren.do
As a whole, the Cavaliers defense is much weaker than Detroit’s — their defensive rating of 113.1 is 11th among all playoff teams. The Pistons are third best at 106.1.
Outside of his offensive struggles, Thompson is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. He would almost certainly guard Jalen Brunson for the Pistons, like he did in last year’s first-round matchup.
Brunson has pretty much figured him out, though. Who can forget Brunson crossing him up before drilling the series-clinching shot in Game 6 last year?
Across their three regular-season games, the Cavaliers seemed to find a potential Brunson stopper in Dean Wade. In those three games, Brunson shot just 1-for-16 from the field and 0-for-6 from 3-point range when Wade guarded him, according to the NBA’s tracking stats.
The overall Cavaliers defense might be worse, but they have the better option to guard Brunson specifically.
The Knicks would have home-court advantage. Little Caesars Arena was absolutely raucous when the Knicks and Pistons met in the first round last year. Pistons fans relentlessly chanted vulgarities at Brunson.
It would help to not have to play the first two games and a potential Game 7 there.
Both J.B. Bickerstaff and Kenny Atkinson are strong regular-season coaches with little postseason success. Mike Brown has been pushing all the right buttons with the Knicks in the playoffs. They should be confident they’ll have the coaching advantage either way.
And in terms of depth, both teams are similar in the strengths of their benches. The Cavaliers are eighth and the Pistons are 11th in bench scoring in the postseason.
The Knicks should prefer to face the Cavaliers. The Pistons have looked a lot more beatable in the postseason, but even so, their defense has remained elite. It’s been on the offensive end where they’ve really struggled. The Knicks offense has been executing at its highest level in the two years with this core. The Pistons and their physicality would be a bigger threat to disrupt that than the Cavaliers.
Cunningham is the most dangerous opponent left in the East.
And home-court advantage does matter. Playing the first two games and a potential Game 7 on the road would be tough. It should also be noted that the Cavaliers have lost all five road games they’ve played this postseason.
