Home Depot Is Up 12% in a Week. Are Midterm Housing Hopes Really That Good? Wiltone Asuncion Wed, November 4, 2026 at 10:26 PM EST 4 min read HD +7.31% ^GSPC +1.58% ^NDX +0.91% Trade HD on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Home Depot stock is up 12% in a week, most of it on Nov. 4, when housing stocks rallied after the midterm elections.
Comparable customer transactions fell 1.0% in the second quarter, so the stores have yet to show the pickup the rally is pricing in.
Analysts expect normalized EPS to grow just 2% this fiscal year.
The third-quarter report on Nov. 17 is the first check on whether the rally's housing bet is reaching the stores.
Home Depot (HD:NYSE) stock rose 12% in the week through Nov. 4, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.7% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.6%.
Most of that gain came on Nov. 4, the day after the midterms, when housing stocks rallied and Home Depot closed up 6.5%. Before that, it rose about 3.6% on both Oct. 29 and Nov. 2, with no company news either day.
Democrats swept Congress after a campaign in which housing affordability was a big issue. Investors are now betting on new housing action and lower mortgage rates, though analysts cited by Yahoo Finance doubt new housing aid will become law. Homebuilders jumped, and Home Depot rallied along with Lowe's.
But Wednesday's dip in rates was tiny: the 10-year Treasury yield fell a few basis points, to about 4.9%. Home Depot's big remodels need home sales, and those ran at just a 3.99 million annual pace in September, down 2.2% from a year earlier.
Home Depot's latest numbers are from its second quarter, which ended Aug. 2. Sales rose 5.7% to $47.9 billion, but $1.4 billion of the $2.6 billion increase came from its GMS acquisition. Comparable transactions fell 1.0% while the average ticket rose 2.8%, as shoppers stuck to smaller projects.
Management guides for adjusted EPS of flat to up 4% this fiscal year, which ends in January, from $14.69 last year. Analysts sit near the middle, at $15.02 of normalized EPS, with growth picking up to about 6% the year after.
Those estimates won't move much until more homes change hands.
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Investors have already paid up for that hope. As of Monday, the stock traded at 22x forward earnings, right at its five-year average and up from about 21x in late October.
The Street's consensus target has drifted down from $439 a year ago to $379.
That's only about 7% above Wednesday's close. Stifel $322, Hold) and Bernstein ($344, Market Perform) both have targets below that close.
Home Depot holds its third-quarter call on Tuesday, Nov. 17. Transactions are the number to watch, along with whether management keeps its outlook for flat to 2% comparable sales growth this year.
Investors are paying for a housing thaw that hasn't reached the stores yet, and Nov. 17's transaction count will show whether that's starting to change. If Congress acts and mortgage rates really fall, big projects could come back quickly, and anyone who waited would pay more.
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