There’s a small sliver of hope settling over Lakers fans as the Western Conference semifinal series shifts to Southern California this weekend.
Fans aren’t panicking yet, but make no mistake about it, the walls are closing in on the Lakers’ season.
Down 2-0 to the reigning champion Thunder, the Lakers aren’t just chasing wins, they’re chasing history, they’re chasing the odds, they’re even chasing the officials.
Let’s start with history. Teams that go up 2-0 in a best-of-seven series go on to win that series 93.7% of the time. In the conference semifinals, the odds are roughly the same; teams that take a 2-0 lead are 111-8 all time in the second round.
Lakers fans will always believe in their team, but the better question is whether there’s something tangible to grab onto that provides proof LA can send this series back to OKC.
Firstly, the Lakers have actually done a credible job guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The reigning MVP hasn’t had much space to operate, much less be his dominant self. LA has thrown multiple coverages at him the second he crosses half court.
They held him to 18 points in Game 1 and 13 points through the third quarter in Game 2.
Because while the Lakers have been busy chasing the head of the snake, the body has been striking everywhere else. Chet Holmgren has 46 points and 21 rebounds. Ajay Mitchell has 38. The Thunder aren’t just deep, they’re surgical. They can beat you in so many ways. As soon as the Lakers take away one option, they crush you with three more.
Which leads us to the first thing the Lakers must do to win Games 3 and 4 at home.
They have to win the minutes when SGA is on the bench.
Right now, they’re getting dominated in those minutes. They are minus-26 across two games when SGA is not on the floor. If you can’t win the non-MVP minutes, you don’t deserve to extend this series.
But that also requires them to win the minutes when their own superstar is not on the floor. Or at the least, survive them. At 41 years old, LeBron James is still the best player on the court in the postseason. But when he sits for two- to three-minute breathers every quarter, the Lakers collapse without him. They’re minus-18 when he’s on the bench in this series.
To survive those minutes, Austin Reaves needs to become the primary scorer on the court. He was a horrendous 3-for-16 shooting the ball in Game 1 but bounced back with a playoff career-high 31 points in Game 2. He helped the Lakers win one stretch without LeBron in the second quarter, but he needs to do that every quarter for the Lakers to win.
Because without Luka Doncic, when LeBron rests, the Lakers’ offense just doesn’t have the firepower necessary to keep up with the Thunder.
Then there’s turnovers and extra possessions.
The Thunder thrive on creating live-ball turnovers and turning defense into offense. The Lakers have committed 37 turnovers in two games, and most of them have been lazy passes, out-of-control dribbling and poor decisions. OKC has turned those into transition baskets and a plus-21 advantage in second-chance points.
If the Lakers can take care of the ball and clean that up, they’re back in the game.
Finally, there’s one stat that’s been following the Lakers all postseason, it’s the great equalizer: the 3-point line.
It’s comically simple. In their eight playoff games, when they outshoot their opponent, they win. When they don’t, they lose. Shoot better than 40% from 3, hold OKC under its average and you’ll win.
And yet, even if the Lakers can check all those boxes … their ceiling in this series still feels low.
The Thunder are the better team. They are the younger, deeper, more athletic and more physical team. Their defense doesn’t just contest shots, it makes the Lakers uncomfortable in everything they do. They manipulate whistles like a master magician. They get to the free-throw line and don’t get called for fouls on the other end of the floor.
It might not be fair, especially with everything else the Lakers have to deal with, but that’s what it takes to win a championship. Which brings us back to reality.
Without Doncic, the Lakers aren’t just trying to climb a mountain, they’re scaling a steep cliff without a rope. They have to play absolutely perfect basketball and pray the officials stop giving the Thunder the benefit of every call. The good news is they are back home. They need two nights of flawless basketball. Two nights where every loose ball bounces their way, every shooter is on a heater and every rotation gets there in time.
Do that and maybe you’ve bought yourself enough time for something miraculous to happen.
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