Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins speaks during a news conference Wednesday, April 8, 2026, in Henderson, Nev. AP Kirk Cousins is trending toward reclaiming No. 1 quarterback status in the NFL.
The 14-year NFL veteran is the -250 favorite at DraftKings to take the season’s first snap on Week 1 over the 2026 No. 1 overall draft pick in Fernando Mendoza.
On Kalshi, Cousins reflects a 67 percent chance to earn the starting gig out of training camp.
Mendoza, on the other hand, is priced at +205. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner would be the first No. 1 overall pick not to start the season-opener since the Browns selected Baker Mayfield in 2018.
Six other quarterbacks, including Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray, have all started for their respective teams in that window.
Las Vegas signed Cousins in April as an unrestricted free agent to a specialized, one-year, $20 million deal. The agreement also features an $80 million club option for two years and could reach a total value of $172 million over five years.
He knows the offense that new head coach Klint Kubiak will be implementing after having played for him for three seasons (2019-21) on the Vikings. Kubiak was the quarterbacks coach before being promoted to offensive coordinator in 2021.
“I expect the guys to go out and do their job,” Kubiak said this week. “They always talk about our quarterback competition.
“They’re competing against the defense every day, but Kirk and Aidan [O’Connell] are going to get reps. Fernando is going to get a lot of reps. We’ve got a long way to go until we start playing football in September.”
Fernando Mendoza #15 of the Las Vegas Raiders handles the ball during the team’s rookie minicamp at the Las Vegas Raiders Headquarters/Intermountain Health Performance Center on May 02, 2026 in Henderson, Nevada. Getty Images Cousins, 37, has regressed since an Achilles injury in 2023. He started 10 games for the Falcons last season after Michael Penix Jr. went down to an ACL injury. With that opportunity, he posted the lowest completion rate (61.7) of his career, a 10-5 TD-INT, and a horrid 47.6 QBR.
The Raiders have cycled through three different Week 1 starting quarterbacks since Derek Carr’s departure — Jimmy Garoppolo in 2023, Gardner Minshew in 2024, and Geno Smith in 2025. Together, they’ve gone 7-23 over those seasons, throwing 35 touchdown passes against 36 interceptions.
Mendoza broke into No. 1 overall pick status in 2025 after leading Indiana to a national championship with a 16-0 campaign, 3,535 passing yards, and 41 touchdowns.
“Having such a genius offensive mind running such a coherent and complementary system is a really good place, really good situation to be in as a quarterback,” Mendoza said of Kubiak.
While he offers the Raiders the highest ceiling in the long term, Cousins’ experience makes for the safest floor while Mendoza eases into his NFL transition.
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
