Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore (32) pitches against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at Busch Stadium. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect For all of the hard feelings in San Diego left behind from Juan Soto’s departure, the deal is beginning to pay dividends for the Padres.
Michael King (3-2, 2.95 ERA), who was sent over from the Yankees in the 2023 trade, has been San Diego’s most effective starter through his seven starts, posting a 141 +ERA (the league average is 100).
King will take on St. Louis’ Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 4.50 ERA) as -168 moneyline favorites in Thursday’s series opener at Petco Park at 10:10 p.m. ET.
The market is leaning heavily on San Diego with Action Network’s public betting report reflecting 80 percent of moneyline bets backing King and the Friars. But St. Louis is continuing to outperform expectations, having won seven of their last 10 with a 3.50 team ERA during that stretch.
After kicking off the season as MLB.com’s 25th-ranked team in the preseason, the Cardinals have climbed into second place in the NL Central and sit 3 ½ games behind the lead. The Cardinals have scored nearly the same number of runs as they’ve allowed this season, yet they continue to stack wins thanks to their ability to deliver in high-pressure situations.
King, who is a southpaw, has his work cut out for him against this hot Cardinals lineup. The Cardinals rank sixth in MLB in wRC+ versus righties, and while King has pitched efficiently, his 4.00 xERA suggests regression is on the rise.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King works against a Seattle Mariners batter during the second inning of a baseball game Tuesday, April 14, 2026, in San Diego. AP San Diego’s bullpen is dynamite, especially with Mason Miller closing games at a ridiculous level, but the relief corps might not be all that fresh on Thursday with Adrian Morejon’s availability in question.
In Liberatore’s case, San Diego ranks as the eighth-worst team in MLB against left-handed pitching this season, posting both a well-below-average wRC+ versus southpaws while having hit the fewest home runs against them.
Liberatore has managed to work at least five innings in six of seven starts this season despite facing several strong offenses against lefties.
The Padres have the star power, but there’s not a lot of reliability right now. Fernando Tatis Jr. is still searching for his first homer of the season and has now gone 156 consecutive regular-season plate appearances without going deep.
St. Louis bats have been trendier: Jordan Walker is proving to be a breakout slugger, hitting .303 with 10 home runs, 27 RBIs, and a .956 OPS. Alec Burleson has also been a rock during this surge, going 12-for-40 with two home runs and 12 RBIs over the last 10 games.
This is a great spot to fade the public for great value on a live dog in the Cardinals.
THE PLAY: Cardinals (+142, FanDuel)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
