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The NFL is privately hopeful it can avoid the nightmare scenario of having Division II, Division III and perhaps even some junior college officials call its games and also avoid activating a remote officiating backstop for the start of the 2026 regular season by coming to an agreement with the referees union as early as Thursday evening.
The league and the NFL Referees Association have made enough progress in their negotiations in recent weeks that the union is expected to vote on the ratification of a new contract, according to sources and reports.
Ratification of the agreement would avoid a work stoppage that seemed all but certain as late as March when both sides were sniping at each other from opposing corners -- leaving fans facing a scenario in which what is already universally believed to be inconsistent officiating to become disastrous with inexperienced replacement refs calling games.
NFL referees stand on the field before the game between the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, on Dec. 25, 2024. (Troy Taormina/Imagn Images)
Neither the NFL nor the NFL Referees Association would comment on their recent negotiations. But that in itself is a sign of progress and a likely agreement because until a few weeks ago, both sides were showing open distaste for the other side's position.
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And at the heart of the rancor between the sides was, well, money.
The officials wanted more of it. The NFL was willing to pay more, but wanted other things in return that it believed would improve the level of officiating.
"The effort has been pretty straightforward," NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller said in March. "I think we've been crystal clear, this is an opportunity for us to improve the state of our officiating. There needs to be accountability measures. There need to be performance measures. And that's what our negotiating posture has been.
"The owners were consistent in saying, ‘We’re more than happy to pay for performance.' This was consistent throughout the course of discussions the last couple of days. What they're insistent upon – insistent upon – is that the performance of the officials and accountability for the performance has to improve.
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NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell looks on before the game between the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts at Empower Field At Mile High in Denver, Colo., on Dec. 15, 2024. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
"And that's where we are in this negotiation and that's exactly where we're going to stay."
But one month after those shots were fired, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell struck a more conciliatory tone at the NFL Draft.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell strides to the podium during Round One of the 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. (Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
"It’s important for us to reach an agreement," he said. "The conversations have been productive recently, and we’re pleased with that, and we hope that continues."
And while it is unclear what exactly the new contract between the NFL and officials will look like, it's apparent neither side got all it wanted.
The regular refs wanted a 10 percent pay increase, wanted to protect a dead period during which they could not be contacted by the league from the end of the season until May 16, did not wish to tie salaries to performance, and wanted playoff crews comprised on the basis of tenure.
The NFL wanted crews comprised on the basis of highest performers during the season, wanted more training in the offseason, and wanted raises based on merit not tenure.
The NFL wanted this so much it actually ratified a new rule to apply for the 2026 season that would activate if replacement officials were needed.
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The NFL instituted rule No. 5 aimed directly at addressing bad calls from replacement officials by allowing the NFL officiating department in New York to correct "clear and obvious mistakes" by on-field officials that impact the game, "in the event there is a work stoppage involving the game officials represented by the NFL Referees Association."
That new rule, which would have effectively taken mistakes by replacement officials out of games, becomes moot if the regular zebras ratify a new contract.
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