When Eli Lilly's Forecast and Chart Say the Same Thing, Pay Attention Trefis Team Mon, November 2, 2026 at 3:35 AM EST 4 min read LLY +3.19% ^GSPC -1.82% JNJ -0.73% MRK +2.18% PFE +1.90% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) gained 10.0% over October 29 and 30. The advance spanned the day the company raised its 2026 revenue forecast and the subsequent trading session, a two-day stretch where the S&P 500 fell 2.1%. Seeing a higher forecast and a rising stock chart point the same way is less common than finding either event alone. So what exactly did Lilly raise, and how much room does the stock have left?
Eli Lilly now expects 2026 revenue of $91 billion to $92 billion, marking an increase from the $86.0 billion it forecast on August 5. The midpoint of the new range sits 6.4% above the prior estimate. Management credited strength across its portfolio, with Mounjaro performing well outside the U.S. In the U.S., management pointed to rapid uptake of the Medicare GLP-1 bridge program. Together, Mounjaro and Zepbound brought in more than $16 billion of third-quarter revenue, up $6 billion from a year earlier.
The same release lowered the company's earnings forecast. Lilly now expects adjusted 2026 earnings of $35 to $36 per share, down from $36.00 before, representing a 1.4% cut at the midpoint. Management said the forecast would have risen by $4.07 per share at the midpoint without $4.57 per share of third-quarter charges for research projects it acquired. So the cut came from deal costs, not from weaker sales.
The stock chart points the same way as management's revenue forecast. On October 30, Eli Lilly stock closed 18.4% above its 50-day average, representing the average closing price over the last 50 trading days. It sat 30.1% above its 200-day average, the same measure calculated over 200 trading days. The 50-day average sat above the 200-day one, so the uptrend is intact. That close marked the stock's highest level in a year.
Most of the gain came on the day of the release, with the stock rising 6.6% as the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%. The release carried the third-quarter results and the new forecast together, so that day's move cannot be tied to the forecast alone. The stock then rose again in the following session while the broader index fell.
Is There Room Left To Run For Eli Lilly?
Under the new range, Lilly needs slower growth in the fourth quarter than it delivered earlier in the year. Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 reached $67.2 billion, up 46.4% from a year earlier. The middle of the new range leaves $24.3 billion for the December quarter, a figure 26.1% higher than a year earlier.
That target sits close to the $24.4 billion Lilly reported for the third quarter, and that earlier period had help. Management said the third quarter's revenue was lifted by about $900 million of items such as milestones and changes to rebate estimates. The company added that 2026 revenue includes about $2 billion of such one-time items it does not expect to recur.
Lilly's oral obesity medicine, Foundayo, provides the newest source of growth. New Foundayo patients doubled in the third quarter from the second, and management said on the October 29 call that about 4 in 10 U.S. patients starting an oral obesity medicine now choose it. Prices moved the other way. Excluding a favorable rebate adjustment, U.S. prices fell 10% in the quarter. The stock already trades at 45.8 times its earnings over the past twelve months, against 22.6 for the S&P 500. Both multiples use reported earnings, not management's adjusted figures.
Management's forecast and the chart agree for now, and that agreement would end if Lilly falls short of the range or the stock slips below its 50-day average. Eli Lilly stock could climb further if fourth-quarter revenue lifts the full year above the raised range and Foundayo keeps adding new patients at its third-quarter pace. Lilly said it will share its 2027 guidance on its fourth-quarter call in January.
How Much Eli Lilly Do You Already Own?
If you own an S&P 500 or Nasdaq fund, you already own Eli Lilly, alongside the same few giants that lead those funds. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio takes a different route: 30 quality companies in equal weight, so no single stock dominates. Since its inception in September 2020 it has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.
