Football awash with Guardiola exit talk as Man City plan for life without him
Image source, Getty ImagesBySami MokbelSenior football correspondentWe will know in a matter of weeks whether Pep Guardiola's reign at Manchester City has run its course.
The industry is awash with talk that the legendary Spaniard will step down in the summer, with BBC Sport hearing similar soundings, with former Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca among the leading candidates to replace him.
As things stand, there is no confirmation from the Etihad club over Guardiola's immediate future.
Until then, there remains an element of mystery over a manager who has unarguably become a Premier League icon - and the small matter of a Premier League title race and FA Cup final to navigate.
But if this does turn out to be Guardiola's last stand, City believe they are in good shape for life without their legendary manager.
The mere thought of transition can be enough to strike fear into any football club, particularly one that has been as successful as City in recent years.
Old habits die hard when winning becomes the norm, but sometimes key decisions are taken out of your hands.
At Etihad Stadium, there are clear signs of evolution.
On the pitch, a host of new players have arrived, while stalwarts Kevin de Bruyne, Kyle Walker and Ederson have left. In the executive team, long-serving sporting director Txiki Begiristain has departed and handed the reins to Hugo Viana.
In attracting players, City have leaned heavily on the unique selling point of working with Guardiola. They can still use his aura to their advantage - but no longer to the same extent.
For example, the January transfer window heralded encouragement - not necessarily because Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi strengthened their squad, but more that the marquee acquisitions show City are maintaining their powerbase in the transfer market.
BBC Sport looks at the club's evolution and why the January window has offered renewed belief at City that change and ambiguity over their manager's future will not derail their efforts to deliver success.
When Guardiola signed a new two-year contract in November 2024, the perceived doomsday scenario of his departure at the end of that season was prevented.
At the time, the club's greatest ever manager had just over six months left on his contract. Now he has 12 months left on his deal - but that does not tell the full story.
The football industry has been rife with speculation over Guardiola's future, although City's perspective is talk of him departing this year is just that - speculation.
Unsurprisingly, it would be City's preference for him to stay for as long as possible. The 55-year-old continues to publicly insist he loves working at the club, and has shown no clear outward indication that he is preparing to leave.
But sources have told BBC Sport there is tangible uncertainty over whether Guardiola will see out the final year of his contract.
The expectation is a decision on whether he stays will be made towards - or after - the end of this season.
And if Guardiola does stay, it is seen as improbable that he will renew his contract.
It is fair, then, to deduce we are likely to be at the beginning of the end of his trophy-laden tenure in the blue half of Manchester.
City have been working to compile a plan to replace Guardiola.
There is a familiarity and logic to the appointment of Maresca that makes him an attractive proposition to City.
First and foremost, he has impressed as a coach, leading Leicester to Premier League promotion as champions in 2024, before taking Chelsea to Champions League qualification plus the Conference League and Club World Cup titles in his only full season at Stamford Bridge.
He knows City, having, firstly, worked at the club's academy for a season in 2020 before joining Guardiola's staff in June 2022.
Maresca has won at City, leading the elite development squad to the Premier League 2 title in 2021.
The Italian was part of Guardiola's staff when they lifted the Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup in 2023.
The fact Maresca is represented by renowned agent Jorge Mendes, who has a close relationship with Viana, is a pertinent factor too.
Elsewhere, Vincent Kompany looks to have all the hallmarks of a future City head coach.
The Belgian remains a revered figure at the Etihad, having captained the side during part of Guardiola's trophy-laden reign.
But Kompany recently signed a new contract at Bayern Munich that takes him to 2029 and seems committed to the Bundesliga outfit.
Other potential contenders may include Xabi Alonso, who is out of work, and Como manager Cesc Fabregas, who is developing a reputation as one of Europe's best emerging coaches.
Semenyo and Guehi entered negotiations with their eyes open.
Both had the Premier League's elite to choose from in January.
Semenyo was a target for Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham. Liverpool, too, were credited with an interest in the 26-year-old, who had a £65m release clause at Bournemouth. He prioritised a move to City.
Guehi was admired on an even greater scale. Out of contract at Crystal Palace at the end of this season, the England defender had suitors across Europe.
Bayern, Inter Milan and Atletico Madrid had serious interest in signing him on a free transfer at the end of the season, while Real Madrid and Barcelona were also in the running. Liverpool's interest was well documented. Arsenal and Tottenham also tried to convince him to agree to move across London this summer.
It is inconceivable that either player decided to sign a long-term contract without knowing it is likely the majority of that time will be spent under a manager who is not Guardiola.
Of course, the opportunity to work for him - even if it is for six months - is one most players are not afforded. But that alone is unlikely to have been enough to compel Semenyo and Guehi to sign five-and-a-half-year deals.
City can no longer lean heavily on the idea of flourishing under Guardiola in their pitches to players.
According to sources, rival club executives have used the emerging narrative over the managerial situation to persuade players to ignore advances from the Blues - as if to suggest their success will wane once Guardiola is gone.
Nevertheless - certainly for Semenyo and Guehi - City's pitch remains among the most competitive around, despite the uncertainty over Guardiola.
There is no escaping the fact they are one of the best payers in Europe, and it would be disingenuous to suggest finances were not a big factor in the two new signings.
That said, it is understood Tottenham's offer to Semenyo was the most lucrative he received in January.
Indeed, sources close to both transfers say it was City demonstrating they gave a virtual guarantee of competing for the biggest trophies and consistent Champions League qualification that proved pivotal in the decision-making process.
Their state-of-the-art infrastructure and off-field ambitions are key features of their pitch to new players, but ultimately it centres on on-field success.
They impress on prospective signings the world-class squad already assembled, combined with their commitment to continue recruiting elite players.
Their strategy of extending the contracts of their best talent in search of continuity and stability also features prominently in their pitch. The 10-year contract that striker Erling Haaland signed last year is a case in point.
But it is City's body of work under their Abu Dhabi ownership - even prior to Guardiola's arrival - that is their truly unique selling point for prospective signings.
That is not to say there are not some uncertainties. The implications of City's prolonged legal battle over the much-documented 115 charges in relation to alleged Premier League financial rule breaches weighs heavily over the Etihad. The club strongly deny any wrongdoing.
The outcome of the case will resonate, and any punishment may alter the landscape of English football and City's history.
While no-one knows where the case is up to, the rebuild City have carried out over the past year suggests they are not actively preparing for the worst.
Regardless of what lies ahead in that respect, they will continue to prepare the football operation for success way beyond when Guardiola is gone.
For those at City, the arrivals of Semenyo and Guehi have provided tangible proof that their recruitment operations are not dependent on Guardiola's employment.
Amid the ongoing changes, there remains a key constant at City.
Chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak is the club's agenda-setter. The idea that the Spanish triumvirate of Guardiola, Begiristain and Ferran Soriano - the club's CEO - ran the show in the absence of a distant Al Mubarak is a false narrative.
He has been, and remains, at the heart of City's operation. No big decisions are made without his input.
To that end, Al Mubarak will be at the centre of the process to appoint Guardiola's eventual replacement. Viana will lead the search - a task that will unquestionably be his most significant since his appointment as Begiristain's replacement was confirmed in October 2024.
For the successful candidate, replacing Guardiola will be an unenviable task.
That said, replacing Begiristain may have been just as daunting for Viana given his predecessor's reputation as one of the leading player-trading executives in world football.
With that in mind, those at City will tell you the move to keep Begiristain to conduct what was effectively a six-month handover to Viana until the summer of 2025 was crucial in the Portuguese's ability to hit the ground running.
According to sources, Begiristain hand-picked Viana as his successor - a dynamic that eased the transition.
That Ruben Amorim - as manager of United - was also in town initially helped.
The pair - and their wives - grew close during their time working together at Sporting, where Viana and Amorim had become two of the most sought-after non-playing commodities in European football.
Viana's track record in Lisbon was excellent. Alongside Amorim, whom he appointed, the 43-year-old helped transform them from a team stuck in malaise into one of the most dynamic in European football.
The signings of Viktor Gyokeres, Morten Hjulmand and Pedro Porro were viewed in recruitment circles as among the most economically sound.
He also sold Porro, Matheus Nunes, Joao Palhinha, Nuno Mendes and Manuel Ugarte for combined fees of more than 200m euros (£170m).
Begiristain and Viana worked in tandem during the 2025 January window in signing Nico Gonzalez, Abdukodir Khusanov and Omar Marmoush - something seen as hugely important in Viana's development.
Similarly, the groundwork for City's £20m capture of Guehi was started by Begiristain but executed by Viana, who is asserting his authority and personality on the club.
Begiristain, Guardiola and Soriano are very close, but Viana is forging relationships with the latter two - and they are already said to be on a strong footing.
Those who have worked under both Viana and Begiristain speak of similarities between them: they are unassuming in their demeanour but diligent and structured in the way they operate.
"There is a plan for everything," said a source.
Agents have also spoken positively of their dealings with Viana, describing him as straightforward and courteous.
Viana is now two transfer windows into the rebuild of City's squad.
De Bruyne, Ederson and Walker all departed on his watch, and fellow stalwarts John Stones and Bernardo Silva will leave when their contracts expire in the summer.
There is uncertainty too over the future of Nathan Ake - and the same could be said for Manuel Akanji, Jack Grealish and Kalvin Phillips, who are all out on loan.
It is gearing up to be a busy summer window for Viana, something made trickier by it being a World Cup year.
Last summer he did not have it all his own way. City had genuine interest in Florian Wirtz, who eventually went to Liverpool, but felt compelled to drop out of the running for the German over the total cost of the deal.
While City maintain it was their decision, the fact they did not sign Wirtz was felt deeply given how highly they rated the player.
Viana pivoted to a more economical option - Rayan Cherki, who has been a bright spark in City's season.
Wirtz appears to be finding his feet in England, but undoubtedly Cherki has had the more impressive campaign so far.
The signings of goalkeepers Gianluigi Donnarumma and James Trafford - after Ederson's departure - were two key acquisitions, with the former's arrival seen as particularly important. Tijjani Reijnders and full-back Rayan Ait-Nouri were also important arrivals.
Viana will now target a new central midfielder, with Nottingham Forest's Elliot Anderson among the primary targets.
They will want further defensive reinforcements too should Ake depart, although there remain high hopes for central defender Vitor Reis - on loan at sister club Girona - with the expectation he will be integrated into City's senior squad in the not too distant future.
With Viana at the controls, City's transition is in full swing - and their ambitions are no longer contingent on the presence of their iconic manager.
A version of this article was first published on 4 February 2026.
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