Outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party are still reeling from their election defeat earlier this month. There is much speculation about what their political future looks like.
https://p.dw.com/p/5D5T6Viktor Orban appears to be finding it hard to believe he has lost power Image: Marton Monus/dpa/picture allianceAdvertisementWhen Viktor Orban was narrowly voted out of office for the first time in 2002, he went through a deep personal crisis. "The homeland cannot be in the opposition!" he said at the time.
In other words, according to his image of himself, only he and his Fidesz party could truly represent the interests of the Hungarian nation; he was its sole legitimate representative. The statement left a deep impression on the Hungarian public.
It was the experience of 2002 that prompted Orban from 2010 to use his two-thirds majority to establish the System of National Cooperation (NER), intended to prevent a reoccurrence of his defeat. Not only did he tailor the electoral system to his party but he also created a vast clientelist system, a sophisticated surveillance apparatus and a massive propaganda machine to secure his power. This system helped him remain in power for 16 years.
That is likely why, up until the election on April 12, the defeat of his Fidesz party was unimaginable for Orban. When the results were announced in the evening, his defeat was so significant that he initially seemed almost speechless.
He disappeared from public life for a few days. Then he gave the only in-depth interview since election day, to Patriota, a YouTube channel that has been loyal to his party. In it, he spoke of the "pain and emptiness" that he had been filled with. Orban also announced that he would resist "the destruction of what we have built."
With regards to mistakes made while he was in government, he admitted that he regretted that the expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant, undertaken with Russian assistance, had not been completed. The journalist, a supporter, was visibly taken aback.
What will now become of Orban and the system he has built over the past 16 years? Does the long-time autocrat have a chance of remaining in politics? Or is his career over? Will he leave the country, as rumors suggest? What will happen to his party, Fidesz, which was tailored entirely to him? What about the Orban dynasty, which has amassed immense wealth, and what about the oligarchs and tens of thousands of well-paid beneficiaries of the outgoing prime minister's regime?
These are the questions Hungarian society is asking right now. In search of answers, many media outlets are reporting on every single remark made by Orban and his allies, and every move made by his oligarchs and cronies. It shows how many Hungarians felt as if they were held hostage for years and how strong the desire is for a reckoning and systemic change.
So far, Orban has refused to take any responsibility for the alleged abuse of power in his regime and shown no public remorse. During the campaign, he announced that he would remain a parliamentarian but would step down as head of Fidesz in case of an election defeat, all the while brushing off this eventuality.
Instead, Orban has indeed stepped down from his parliamentary seat, but not yet announced his resignation as party leader. He has offered to quit but underlined that he stands ready "for the community."
The party has said that it will hold a new leadership conference in June. The dilemma faced by Fidesz is that it would fall apart without Orban, as the party is completely centered on him. And yet with him it will retain the reputation of being a corrupt and autocratic party among all but its small core voter base.
In a video posted on Facebook, Orban himself announced his future plans in a way that was quite remarkable in semantic terms: "I am not needed in parliament right now but in the reorganization of the national side."
For many Hungarians, this is a continuation of Orban's long-standing story: That the part of the Hungarian population that supports him are the true Hungarians, but nobody else.
Many view the gesture of giving up his parliamentary seat as both shirking responsibility and an attempt to reassert dominance. Many feel Orban probably does not want to subject himself to the humiliation of having to hear criticism of himself and his system in parliament. At the same time, he apparently also considers it beneath his dignity to be just a lawmaker.
The political scientist Daniel Rona recently predicted on the Hungarian news portal Telex that Orban would likely wait to see how things developed over the coming months before making a concrete decision on how to shape his political and personal future.
Investigative journalist Szabolcs Panyi wrote that Orban was considering going to the United States and applying for asylum there, but that is unlikely. This would destroy his work in Hungary, deal a fatal blow to his party and political community and also severely damage his family dynasty.
Orban's father and younger brother are two of the wealthiest business people in Hungary, involved predominantly in the mining and construction sectors. His eldest daughter Rahel and her husband Istvan Tiborcz, who are also among Hungary's richest individuals, emigrated to the US last year. The European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) investigated Tiborcz on several occasions based on alleged irregularities and conflicts of interest regarding state tenders. It forwarded recommendations to the Hungarian authorities and called for EU funds to be returned. In Hungary, the proceedings were shelved.
There are signs of movement among Orban's associates too. A few days ago, incoming Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar accused the people many regard as Orban's cronies of transferring billions to foreign accounts in order to evade anti-corruption investigations and planned attempts to recover assets. Though there is no concrete evidence of this, Hungarian media outlets have reported on numerous financial transactions on the part of oligarchs, such as Orban's childhood friend Lorinc Meszaros, a businessman and former politician.
Many in Orban's party are still in a state of disbelief over their election defeat, and have turned to religion in an attempt to explain it. Outgoing Speaker of the National Assembly Laszlo Kover described it as a "temporary victory for satanic forces" but added that "in the end, victory belongs to Jesus Christ."
Zsolt Jeszenszky, a well-known influencer from the Orban camp, said that he thought the outgoing prime minister had "unintentionally committed idolatry" during a visit to India in early 2025, thereby "opening the door to evil spirits in his life."
Others have said that the defeat was caused by opportunistic profiteers in the Orban system. But few Fidesz loyalists have blamed corruption and abuse of power for the party's defeat.
This article was translated from German.
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