Spencer Pratt’s odds beating incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass in the upcoming election have surged, according to a popular prediction platform.
As of Thursday morning, Kalshi had Pratt’s odds of winning at 25% compared to Bass’ 18%, marking a nearly 10% surge for the independent since April 24. Democratic socialist Nithya Raman led overall with a 60% chance.
“They let my home burn down. I know the consequences of failed leadership,” Pratt added, promising to usher in a new “Golden Age” in LA. The ad received some rave reviews. Pratt had a 43% chance of coming in second, while Raman had a 30% chance, the platform said. Bass’ runner-up odd sat at 24%.
The market has a betting volume of a little over $1.5 million, and any large bets placed on the three candidates can shift the odds.
Bass had been the favorite since July, before Raman took the lead in March. The incumbent’s decline has led to Pratt surpassing her in the odds market.
Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss, who founded the precursor to Facebook, said that he bet $1,000.80 on Pratt and signaled his support for the independent. He stands to win $3,336 if Pratt wins.
“It’s time for a New Golden Age for Los Angeles. @spencerpratt for mayor!” he wrote on X.
Pratt recently unveiled a 30-second campaign ad that took aim at Bass and Raman by calling out their fancy homes. His residence burned down in the January 2025 Palisades Fire
The clip was hailed as “brilliant” and had racked up more than 8.5 million views as of Thursday morning
“They let my home burn down. I know the consequences of failed leadership,” Pratt said in the video, promising to usher in a new “Golden Age” in LA.
Bass had led the odds since July before Raman took the lead in March. Bass has since declined in support, leading to Pratt overtaking her. Ringo Chiu A UCLA poll published April 3 showed the incumbent with 25% support to Pratt’s 11% and Raman’s 9% among likely LA primary voters. A whopping 40% of likely voters said they were still undecided.
The LA mayoral primary election is set for June 2. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a general election will take place on Nov. 3.
