Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins during warmups. NHLI via Getty Images Tuesday is shaping up to be the most dramatic night of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Not only is there a pivotal Game 5 between the Stars and Wild in Dallas, but we’ve also got two elimination contests serving as bookends on the slate.
The Sabres and Bruins will open the proceedings at 7:30 p.m. ET with Buffalo looking to punch its ticket to Round 2, while the Oilers will try to stay alive in Game 5 against the Ducks at 10 p.m. ET.
We break down all three games and pick out our best bet for each below:
The Bruins have no chance of getting back into this series if Jeremy Swayman isn’t their best player. The American Olympian was superb in the first two games of the series, but he came unglued in Game 4, allowing six goals on just 29 shots.
That was an outlier compared to the rest of Swayman’s performances in this series, but it’s concerning nonetheless, as goaltending is the only real edge Boston brings to the tale of the tape.
The silver lining is that the B’s have actually done a decent job at 5-on-5 for most of this series. Game 4 was a dud, but outside of that no-show, Boston has hung in there against a more skilled opponent. There have been times when the B’s have had to weather the storm, but much of that was due to score effects, like when Buffalo was behind in the first two games of the series.
Boston’s path to victory on Tuesday and beyond is to stick around and let Swayman be the difference-maker. I think we’re getting a strong enough price to bet on that happening in Game 5.
The play: Bruins moneyline (+145, bet365)
Jamie Benn of the Stars and Jacob Middleton of the Wild battle during Game 2. AP They don’t come any tighter than this.
Knotted at 2-2 after four games, the best-of-7 between the Stars and Wild is playing true to form after these two teams were neck and neck for most of the regular season in the battle for second place in the Central Division.
Oddsmakers projected this series as a pick’em before it started, and the price has barely budged after four games.
I think that is underselling how impressive Dallas has looked thus far.
While Game 4 was a bit of a back-and-forth affair, the previous two contests were much more rigid, and I’d expect Tuesday’s tilt to be more of the same.
Both teams have proven throughout the season, and again in this series, that they can defend at an elite level, and with the stakes being so high, I’d imagine that discipline and staying out of the box will keep this game at 5-on-5 for the most part.
Throw in two high-ceiling goaltenders, and you’ve got all the right ingredients for a play on the Under 5.5
You don’t see a 7-goal Over/Under in the NHL very often, and it’s even rarer in the postseason, but the Ducks and Oilers are playing some serious pond hockey in this series, and there are no signs of it slowing down.
Coming into Game 1, it seemed like a defense-optional series would greatly benefit the Oilers, but there have been a couple of unfortunate developments for the two-time defending Western Conference champions. Leon Draisaitl doesn’t look fully recovered from his mid-March injury, and Connor McDavid is also not at 100 percent.
With McDavid and Draisaitl compromised, the Oilers are in serious trouble. And that’s even before we mention the terrible goaltending that is plaguing Edmonton again this postseason.
There are more than enough ways you can talk yourself into a play on the Ducks at +145.
The play: Ducks moneyline (+145, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
