Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning colliding with Ivan Demidov of the Montreal Canadiens. Getty Images The first two games between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens were box office.
They’ve been fast and physical, and both tilts were decided in overtime. The Habs were able to win a back-and-forth Game 1 thanks to a Juraj Slafkovsky hat-trick, while the Bolts took Game 2 thanks to an OT-winner from J.J. Moser.
Tampa Bay is a slight -120 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook for this pivotal Game 3 in Montreal on Friday night.
Anybody who thinks they know what’s coming next in this series is lying. The first two contests have been hectic, unpredictable, and frankly, violent. The Habs and Bolts have been flying into one another at any opportunity, combining for 80 penalty minutes and 163 hits in Games 1 and 2.
With all the chaos, it’s hard to get a clear picture of who is carrying the play at 5-on-5, but it does seem like we’ve seen a pattern emerge. Tampa Bay is tilting the ice, while Montreal is more focused on counter-punching.
Montreal’s Jakub Dobes owns an .895 save percentage in two games this postseason. Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images The Lightning have a wide advantage in terms of shot attempts (100 to 66) and shots on goal (42 to 27) at 5-on-5, but the Habs are generating more high-danger scoring chances (18 to 7), and are a buzzsaw in transition.
It’s likely that the Canadiens will continue to try to play into their strength and generate as many odd-man chances as possible, but the Lightning are a good bet to tidy things up. Only one team (Vegas) allowed fewer high-danger scoring chances than the Bolts during the regular season.
Outside of their ability to adjust, the Lightning also holds a distinct advantage in goal. Although he hasn’t been lights out against the Habs, Andrei Vasilevskiy is likely to win the Vezina Trophy, and is a much more reliable option in net compared to 24-year-old Jakub Dobes for Montreal.
Dobes has done his job through two games, and he was terrific down the stretch, but he’s going toe-to-toe with a generational netminder, and one that has played in plenty of these high-stakes games throughout his career.
Tampa Bay and Vasilevskiy are worth a bet as a slight favorite on Friday night.
The Play: Lightning moneyline (-120, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
