Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is considered a lock for the first pick. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Year four of the sports bettors’ NFL mock draft has arrived.
For those who are new here, the sports bettors’ mock draft isn’t about my draft evaluations or projections. It’s about keeping my ears open and aggregating all of the top analysts to pull together the most informed betting advice that anyone could possibly get ahead of Thursday’s first round.
Betting on information-based markets is not for the faint of heart, and oftentimes involves taking big favorites and projecting trades in order to cash in big.
Last year, we nailed the top four draft picks and hit some others further down the board, including correctly projecting the Giants to trade up for Jaxson Dart at the back-end of the first round.
Here’s a look at our 2026 NFL mock draft for the first round with betting predictions based on those projections.
Ty Simpson is perhaps the most polarizing talent in the NFL Draft, and for good reason.
Without getting into the weeds of whether he actually deserves to be a first-round pick, let’s go to what the mock drafters are projecting.
Mel Kiper Jr. has the Cardinals trading back into the first round at No. 30 to snag Simpson, well Over the 23.5 projection that sportsbooks currently have listed.
I’m targeting the No. 32 pick instead because Peter Schrager has Arizona projected to trade up for Simpson in his final mock draft.
Ty Simpson is expected to be the second quarterback off the board during the 2026 NFL Draft. Getty Images Both mock drafters are very plugged in, so I think the +600 spot is a great long-shot bet for the NFL Draft.
But be sure to cover that wager with Over 23.5, as, barring something unforeseen, you’re looking at a breakeven spot if he’s not picked with the final first-round pick of the evening.
The Giants appear to have a bad poker face when it comes to the NFL Draft. It’s perhaps the worst-kept secret in the league that the Giants love Jordan Tyson, the oft-injured wide receiver from Arizona State.
Tyson is in play at No. 5 overall as well as No. 10 overall, though it is unclear if he will actually fall that far.
Regardless of how you see this playing out, it’s been the talk of the town that the Giants don’t love Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles, especially at the No. 5 pick.
That’s why I’m targeting “Giants don’t draft Sonny Styles” at -263 odds at Kalshi. It’s another spot that you can win both wagers or break even, if you manage your bankroll correctly.
None of Kiper, Schrager and Jeremiah have projected the Giants to take Styles, and Todd McShay told Rich Eisen that it is “out there” that the Giants won’t select Styles with a top-five pick.
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
