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Bayern score late to win seven-goal thriller over Real Madrid
Their chances of winning silverware this season were already slim, but a late moment of indiscipline from Eduardo Camavinga in Munich, followed by two even later Bayern goals, leave Los Blancos needing a miracle.
Unless they can overhaul Barcelona's nine-point lead at the top of La Liga with seven matches remaining, Real will end a season trophyless for just the fifth time this century.
Alvaro Arbeloa's side came so close to reaching the semi-finals, but history does not look kindly on Real Madrid managers who fail to win major trophies.
Having won the Champions League (15) and La Liga (36) more than any other team in history, Real Madrid are not used to failure.
Los Blancos have only gone without a major trophy in four seasons this century - 2004-05, 2005-06, 2009-10, and 2020-21.
In campaigns when they didn't win the league, Champions League or a domestic cup - like in 2024-25 - they at least still won either or both the Uefa Super Cup or Fifa Club World Cup.
And this season has certainly been an inconsistent one.
Real started the campaign with Xabi Alonso as manager. And while a 2-1 defeat of Barcelona gave them a five-point lead at the top of the league table after just 10 games, a run of four matches without a win soon followed.
Alonso then resigned as manager after losing to Barca in the Spanish Super Cup in January, before the tenure of his replacement, former team-mate Arbeloa, began with a Copa del Rey defeat to second-division Albacete.
Seven goals, fastest strike & two red cards - Bayern-Real delivers drama
With all of that in mind, Jude Bellingham knew exactly what was at stake in Munich. And Madrid blew it.
"Any loss in the Champions League feels like a disaster and like I said, given the situation we're in, we understand tomorrow is a final," said Bellingham.
"Given the situation we're in, we want to be still playing for something, rather than having games pass us by.
"It feels as if everything's riding on this game. We have to see it like that. It's an all or nothing game."
For years it felt like Real Madrid were inevitable in the Champions League.
First under Zinedine Zidane, then Carlo Ancelotti, individual brilliance and an innate belief that they would prevail, no matter the odds, saw them overcome often more cohesive opposition.
The appointment of Alonso was meant to herald a new era, a Real Madrid with a defined style not solely reliant of individual skill or what at times felt like divine intervention. He lasted seven months.
Arbeloa came in as an interim, then permanent, replacement. But now his future looks uncertain.
"Real Madrid are going to finish without a trophy again this season," former Madrid winger Steve McManaman said on TNT Sports.
"You feel for Arbeloa - his game plan was excellent, but a couple of moments cost Real Madrid."
After the match Arbeloa made clear he felt Camavinga's second yellow card for time wasting was unfair and that his side deserved to progress, but also accepted responsibility.
"I am the one responsible for the defeats and I will always take the consequences from that," he said.
"I am so proud of the players. This is Real Madrid. La Liga is very tough. We have to keep fighting until the last match day. We have a badge to defend.
"We feel really upset, really angry, really disappointed. This felt like a defining game in our season."
Arbeloa spoke candidly about the consequences he may face - both Manuel Pellegrini and Zidane left their jobs after leading Madrid to trophyless campaigns.
"I will understand any decision the club makes. I'm a Real Madrid man through and through. I care about this club, the players and the supporters a lot more than I care about myself," said Arbeloa.
"My goal when I became this team's coach was never to prove that I'm a good coach, it was always to just help the players and be at their side and help the club and I'll do that until my last day in charge.
"I feel like I did everything I could to help this team win. I do everything I can everyday.
"I will respect the club's decision. But I'm not thinking about that. It's a decision of the club. I'm a man of the club and all I want is for Madrid to win, regardless of who their coach is."
When a visibly drained looking Alvaro Arbeloa stepped into the press room in Munich, questions about his future felt unavoidable. His expression echoed the same sense of disappointment he showed after his very first match in charge, the defeat by Albacete.
The 43-year-old has been in the role for only four months, having replaced Alonso in January. Yet the pressure has been relentless, the results have been inconsistent, and the season now looks set to end without major silverware - a repeat of 2024-25, when only the Uefa Super Cup was secured.
This would be the first time in 16 years Real Madrid have gone two consecutive seasons without winning a major trophy. Under president Florentino Perez, managers' contracts have typically ended the moment those trophies disappear.
Throughout it all, Arbeloa has consistently taken responsibility, deflecting the blame away from his players. By his own admission, he is 'a man of the badge', fully committed to fighting for the club at all costs.
But taking consistent ownership for poor defeats won't be enough to convince Perez he's the right man to lead Madrid into next season.
The club never publicly clarified the length of Arbeloa's contract although sources suggest it runs until the end of the 2026-27 campaign. For now, dismissing Arbeloa before the season concludes would serve little purpose, with relatively little left at stake.
Real sit nine points behind Barcelona is La Liga with a Clasico at Camp Nou still to play in May. Players have also spoken openly about how Arbeloa improved morale in the dressing room. Vinicius Junior, speaking ahead of the first leg against Bayern, said that he had 'a wonderful connection' with Arbeloa and that he 'hoped he could continue' working with him.
For now, Arbeloa said he isn't worried about his future.
"Since I've been in this position, it hasn't been the slightest worry. I feel I've done everything I can to help my players win every day."
But if anyone understands the unforgiving nature of Real Madrid's managerial turnover, it is Arbeloa.
There will also be a Champions League Match of the Day on BBC One on Wednesday, from 22:40 to 00:00.
