Kawhi Leonard of the Los Angeles Clippers. AP The Warriors and Clippers meet in a do-or-die NBA play-in game with their respective seasons on the line Wednesday night. One team will move on to face the Suns for a shot at the No. 8 seed, and the other will likely begin dismantling its roster over the offseason.
The Warriors (37-45) are the only team under .500 in the field, and the Clippers (42-40) managed to salvage a season that had gone awry from the jump when they started 6-21.
The Clippers have the home-court advantage, and oddsmakers see them as 5.5-point favorites after they beat the Warriors by five points in Game 82 without Kawhi Leonard.
We are witnessing the last gasp of a dynasty that has been on life support for a couple of seasons.
Since the Golden State Warriors won their fourth championship with Stephen Curry and Co. in 2022, they lost Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole, their second- and third-leading scorers from that team. (Thanks, Draymond Green.)
They’ve also missed nearly every opportunity to build through the draft.
James Wiseman was a bust as a No. 2 pick, former No. 7 pick Jonathan Kuminga and head coach Steve Kerr could never find common ground, and lottery pick Moses Moody suffered a season-ending knee injury during his most productive season.
Not to mention Jimmy Butler’s season-ending knee injury, Kristaps Porzingis’ mystery illness that no one can comprehend, the coup de grâce, Stephen Curry developing runner’s knee midway through the season, and missing two months. The Warriors have been incredibly unlucky, but boxed themselves into a corner with a spate of failed roster moves.
AP For this game, Curry (knee), Porzingis (illness), and Al Horford (calf) will all be on a minutes limit. That’s a stunning way to approach an elimination game, but it may also speak to the team’s mindset.
The Warriors are on the road facing Leonard in his best season since 2021, and Darius Garland, who looks rejuvenated after being traded from Cleveland to Los Angeles.
Even if Curry could play the entire game, the Clippers have the sixth-best offense and the 11th-ranked defense over the past 57 games, which turned their season around. Over that same stretch, the Warriors have the 19th-ranked defense and 18th-ranked offense.
I have a hard time seeing the Warriors putting up a fight for the entire game if two of their best offensive weapons aren’t guaranteed to play more than 30 minutes.
If Kerr tries to front-load Curry’s minutes, he might not have him available late in the game; if he tries to hold him back early, the Warriors could fall into a hole without his scoring.
Either way, I think the Clippers cover the 5.5-point spread.
The Pick: Clippers -5.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
