A blistering 8-2 start to the season is now firmly in the rear-view mirror, as the Bronx Bombers could fall to .500 with a loss to the Angels at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday evening.
The oddsmakers have tagged the Yankees as -184 favorites for this encounter, a price that seems a little lofty considering the pitching matchup.
It’s not that Jack Kochanowicz, the Angels’ starter, is an ace (he’s far from it), but more that Luis Gil, who will get the nod for the Yanks, is an unknown at this point in his career.
After capturing Rookie of the Year honors in 2024, Gil strained his lat in Spring Training before last season and has struggled to regain his form. He’s lost velocity, his control is out of whack, and he just doesn’t look like the same pitcher.
The good news is that Gil is not the only hard-to-trust pitcher in this clash. Outside of a high groundball rate and high velocity, Kochanowicz’s statistical profile is alarming.
Jack Kochanowicz struggled mightily for the Angels in 2025. Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images Last year, Kochanowicz ranked in the first percentile in hard hit rate and average exit velocity, and was just a tick higher (third percentile) in xERA and strikeout rate. His control was also an issue, putting him in the ninth percentile in walk rate.
Those numbers have all ticked up in 2026, but they’re still well below-average across the board.
And while Gil is backed up by a bullpen that should be a strength, the Angels do not have that luxury.
This total has ticked up past 10.5, with juice on the Over, but I’d rather isolate the starting pitchers instead of going after the full-game number.
It figures to be a beautiful night in The Bronx, and I expect both offenses to be on the front foot, looking to chase two vulnerable starting pitchers from the jump.
The Play: Over 6.5 runs in First 5 Innings (-102, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
