Flexible growth target means little likelihood of imminent stimulus, but focus will switch to impact of disruptions in second quarter
3-MIN READ3-MIN ListenMia NurmamatPublished: 9:00pm, 15 Apr 2026The US-Israeli war on Iran and the current Iranian and American blockades of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to overshadow China’s first-quarter economic performance, analysts said, with questions looming large about how the world’s second-largest economy will handle their impact.
Many observers said they expect the leadership in Beijing will adopt a wait-and-see approach, with little likelihood of an immediate stimulus to guarantee the country’s annual economic target is met.
“The first-quarter performance should be solid,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered, predicting gross domestic product growth of around 4.8 per cent on the back of resilient trade and gradually improving consumption.
He said that forecast was set against a relatively high base last year, and “if realised, it would meet or even exceed Beijing’s expectations”.
His forecast is in line with the average of economists’ forecasts compiled by financial data provider Wind.
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release first-quarter GDP figures on Thursday, offering an early indication of how successful the Chinese economy has been in weathering several months of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the wake of the war.
