Min Woo Lee has three top-10 finishes in 2026. AP Rory McIlroy’s repeat triumph at the Masters carried with it a nice lesson about the psychology of betting.
The Northern Irishman, the No. 2 golfer in the world and the defending champion at Augusta, was relatively unfancied in the betting market ahead of this year’s chase for the Green Jacket. In previous years, while McIlroy was chasing his elusive first Masters title, he was always one of the trendiest betting picks to win, if not the most popular.
His price would plummet, as bookmakers knew they could enforce a “Rory Tax,” similar to what they used to do with Tiger Woods in his salad days.
But this year, whether it be because of injuries or the fact that nobody likes to bet on a repeat winner at Augusta, McIlroy’s odds drifted to 16/1, more than double where they were before Round 1 in 2025. In fact, that was the best price you could get on the career grand slammer to win the Masters since 2022.
And yet, McIlroy, one of the most popular athletes on the planet, flew under the radar. According to BetMGM, only 3.6 percent of the bets they took were on McIlroy, making him the 10th-most popular choice despite his discounted price and the fact that the monkey was now off his back. Go figure.
We’ll carry that lesson forward, but for now, it’s time to focus on the RBC Heritage, where Scottie Scheffler headlines the field as a +440 favorite. No other player is shorter than 15/1 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
In his last start, which came at the Texas Children’s Houston Open three weeks ago, Min Woo Lee finished T3. It was his third top-10 of the year and the fourth time in five starts that the Australian finished T12 or better.
All of that went out the window with a disastrous showing at the Masters, but Augusta is a unique beast. You can be forgiven for getting gobbled up, especially if it was a one-off.
If Lee’s 2026 form was good enough to have him inside 50/1 to win the Masters, he’s certainly worth a hard look at this price at an easier course against a softer — albeit still tough — field.
Wyndham Clark was is coming off his best-ever showing at Augusta National. Getty Images Wyndham Clark 110/1 (DraftKings) It’s been tough sledding over the past calendar year for Wyndham Clark, but he did start to percolate at Augusta last week.
The 2023 U.S. Open champion was hanging around the leaderboard going into the weekend, but was just unable to get hot enough to make a charge, eventually settling for T21, his best-ever showing at the Masters.
Clark now brings that uptick in form to a course where he’s just one year removed from a third-place finish.
It may not look like it on the surface, but things are starting to trend in the right direction for Tony Finau.
The Utahn couldn’t even get in the door at Augusta this year, but he’s been playing well enough to catch my attention while not posting the eye-popping results to crater his price.
Finau’s last start is a good metaphor for where he’s at in 2026. He finished T49 at the Valero Texas Open, but he was tied for third going into the weekend. A pedestrian Saturday and a disastrous Sunday tanked his outing, but it’s easy to forgive a 230/1 long shot for those kinds of transgressions.
Finau has had a number of similar showings recently. The six-time winner can string together a few solid rounds, but one day undoes all that hard work.
If Finau can find a way to string 72 holes together, he has the potential to pay off at a massive price.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
