Eric Swalwell is finished.Not just finished as a candidate for governor. Finished as a serious political force in California.His announcement that he is resigning from Congress confirms what was already obvious: This scandal was politically unsurvivable.
Reports on Monday said he plans to step down, but his public statement did not clearly specify the effective date.
Eric Swalwell resigned from Congress. CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Imag The speed of the collapse is still astonishing.One minute Swalwell was a top-tier Democrat in a crowded governor’s race. The next, he was a toxic liability abandoned by allies, donors, labor, and Democratic power brokers who clearly decided he was no longer worth defending. That is not a campaign setback.That is a political execution.The allegations were serious. The fallout was immediate.
And once the House Ethics Committee opened an investigation and 55 former staff members came out with an open letter basically saying they believe the women, the last fantasy that Swalwell could somehow ride this out should have died on the spot. Now comes the next question: What does his resignation actually mean for his congressional seat?That part is still murky.
Adam Schiff, Ilhan Omar and Eric Swalwell at a news conference CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images What happens next is not up to “Sacramento.” It is up to Gavin Newsom.
California law gives the governor the power to call a special election to fill a congressional vacancy, but when a vacancy occurs this late in the final year of a term, that decision becomes discretionary.
And if a special election were held now, the winner would likely serve virtually no meaningful time before the term expires anyway.
That is why the most likely outcome is that the seat simply remains vacant unless House Democratic leadership pressures Newsom to fill it.
But the bigger impact is on the governor’s race.That was true yesterday. It is even more true now.Swalwell’s voters do not disappear. They move. Most of that vote is now available to Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, or another Democrat seeking to consolidate support ahead of the June election. That changes the board. And that creates strange dynamics.
If the “Swalwell vote” goes mostly to the two other Democrats currently polling in the double digits, billionaire Tom Steyer and former Congresswoman Katie Porter, this could bump them up and create the potential for two Dems to make the runoff.
On the other hand, if these votes are scattered among all seven Democratic candidates, the possibility of an all-GOP runoff still exists.So yes, Eric Swalwell’s political career is, for all practical purposes, over.
Yes, it happened that fast.But while the political class scrambles to recalculate the governor’s race, the women who accused him are entering a new chapter in a nightmare they did not ask for and do not deserve.
Criminal investigations are now underway, which means more scrutiny, more exposure, and more unwanted public attention for people who have already been through enough.
After the press conferences, the cameras will move on. The consultants and donors and operatives will move on. The voters will move on.
But decent people should not forget the human cost here.
Whatever comes next politically, the women who came forward should be in our thoughts and prayers.
Jon Fleischman, a longtime strategist in California politics, writes at SoDoesItMatter.com.
