Make New York Post a Preferred Source Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, in Atlanta. AP Photo/Mike Stewart Full practices throughout the week we expect the return of Caleb Williams for the Bears on Sunday.
Though the line is currently showing the Atlanta Falcons some respect, as they are just one-point home underdogs on Sunday.
Chicago has been heralded as one of the best teams in the league since the start of the season behind offensive mastermind Ben Johnson.
Losing Williams for most of the season has quieted some of that talk, but their peripheral stats still show a strong team, even with Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent leading for most of the season.
Chicago is still rated the No. 19 team in FTN’s DVOA, coming in at No. 14 overall on offense and No. 20 on defense.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. leads the Falcons on the field after an injury. AP Photo/Mike Stewart Prior to last week’s embarrassing performance by Bagent, the Bears were rated the No. 9 team overall.
Considering their quarterback play has been substandard for most of the season, I think the Bears have weathered the storm nicely without their best player.
The Falcons are an interesting case as well, only in reverse. Atlanta was missing Michael Penix Jr, through the first two weeks and played much better with him back in the lineup.
What I get worried about with Atlanta is how their defense is significantly overrated.
Coming into the season, the Falcons’ defense was expected to be one of the worst in the league.
They surprisingly thwarted the opposition’s rushing attacks, allowing just 2.7 YPC and 48.3 rushing yards per game through four weeks.
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is expected to return on Sunday. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect On the season, they’ve allowed just 3.8 yards per carry (10th best), but have ceded 4.4 YPC in their last three games, which is in the bottom 10 of the league.
I think they were exposed last week and that won’t get easier against the No. 1 rushing offense in football.
The Falcons have just one takeaway all season, and they’re missing top cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and C.J. Henderson.
An elite passing game should be able to expose them if they choose.
Fade the Falcons up and down this week, and the Bears will roll here.
PREDICTION: Bears -1.5 (-110) | Bears -6.5 (+220, Fanatics Sportsbook) | Bears -13 (+525, Fanatics)
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
