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Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) might have what it takes to double in value by 2030. It is in the middle of a correction, but its 35% return during the past year shows what is possible when the stock gains momentum. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a major catalyst that continues to light up every part of the business. Here's what it would take for Alphabet to double by the end of the decade.
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Google Cloud used to be a cash drain for the company, but it's now the centerpiece of the stock's recent gains. The cloud platform's revenue rose 82% year-over-year in the second quarter, compared to a 32% year-over-year growth rate in Q2 2025.
AI has significantly increased the demand for cloud computing and storage, and that has resulted in substantial sequential growth. When Alphabet reports Q3 earnings in the end of October, it's entirely possible for the cloud segment to almost double year-over-year. Google Cloud already has a $514 billion backlog, which is enough to cover more than five years of cloud revenue at current levels.
Google search and YouTube also did well, with 17% and 13% year-over-year revenue growth, respectively. They are still important parts of the business that generate wide margins, but Google Cloud is the more important piece of the puzzle when assessing if Alphabet stock can double by 2030.
Gemini is already producing tangible results for Alphabet and increasing how much time people spend in the company's digital ecosystem. The Gemini app reached 950 million monthly active users, with Gemini processing 22 billion tokens (units of data) per minute, marking almost 40% sequential growth.
That doesn't mean Gemini is processing 22 billion searches per minute. Hundreds of tokens are required for the AI model to interpret your prompt, search the internet for relevant information, and provide a response. Each of those actions results in thousands of tokens being processed for basic searches.
However, the increased token processing demonstrates that more people are being more active on Gemini. It's adding new users while boosting engagement levels from existing customers.
Gemini is still a small part of overall revenue, but its vast customer base and enterprise applications can turn it into a major part of Alphabet's future growth story. Key products like Google Search and Google Maps already incorporate Gemini, making it easier for people to get familiar and comfortable with this tool.
Continued growth from Google Cloud and Gemini may be enough to double the stock by 2030. It has a respectable 22.8 forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, and while net income is a bit skewed by investment gains counting toward that total, a 30% jump in net operating income shows that margins are improving without gains from its SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) and Anthropic stakes.
However, those aren't the only ways Alphabet is involved with AI. Its robotaxi company, Waymo, is the industry's leader. Waymo's self-driving vehicles are already conducting autonomous rides for consumers in multiple cities. Expansion into additional cities, new milestones beyond 500,000 autonomous rides per week, and other Waymo catalysts can propel the stock even if profitability remains multiple years away.
Investors saw with Google Cloud that it can take years to break even, but once it does, revenue growth and margins can scale quickly. Waymo did not come up in the Q2 press release or earnings slides, but it was a major item in the Q1 press release.
It's anyone's guess if meaningful Waymo news will come out in the third quarter, but significant developments should come out when expanding the time horizon to the end of the decade. For most companies, something like Waymo would be at the center of the investment thesis. However, it's extra gravy for Alphabet's financials that can be a sizable part of the business within a few years. By the time that happens, Alphabet stock may end up doubling.
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Marc Guberti has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Can Alphabet Stock Double By 2030? was originally published by The Motley Fool
