As the US housing market stalls, one state keeps defying gravity.
Home prices across the Garden State of New Jersey climbed nearly 6% in February compared to a year earlier, the sharpest gain of any state in the nation, according to figures released this week by Cotality, a property data firm.
The national average over that same stretch is only half a percent. New Jersey did not just beat the field. It lapped it.
Newark punched even harder. Among the 100 biggest metro areas in the United States, the city recorded the steepest year-over-year price jump in the country at 6.7%.
The numbers tell a story about what happens when jobs, transit and relative value collide. New Jersey has quietly become a landing pad for workers priced out of Manhattan but unwilling to sacrifice a full paycheck.
The state’s dense corridor of finance and fintech firms, pharmaceutical giants and biotech campuses has kept demand humming even as buyers elsewhere pump the brakes.
Cotality analysts specifically flagged New Jersey’s high-wage employment base as a structural driver of housing demand, one that insulates the market from the volatility hitting Sun Belt states hard right now.
Thirteen states recorded outright price declines in February.
Florida, a COVID-era landing pad, dropped more than 2%. Washington, DC slid 3%. Montana fell nearly as far.
Meanwhile, inventory remains well below pre-pandemic levels statewide, which is driving up prices in several areas.
Nearly 40% of homes sold above the asking price in February. The affordability advantage New Jersey once held over New York is narrowing fast, and if mortgage rates stay elevated heading into summer, some of that demand could stall before it converts into closed deals.
Cotality’s chief economist noted that the broader US market is rebalancing locally rather than correcting nationally, which is a careful way of saying the country no longer has one housing market. It has dozens.
“These diverse trends indicate an ongoing process of price discovery — one where sales and comparisons remain limited — and underscore a market that is rebalancing locally rather than correcting nationally,” Cotality chief economist Dr. Selma Hepp said in the report.
“Although the steady decrease in mortgage rates prior to the spring homebuying season raised hopes for a rebound in home prices and sales in 2026, the recent surge in rates has reduced demand in the housing market, shifting expectations for a broader recovery this year.”
