Apple's iPhone Duo Demand Tracking 'Solidly Out Of The Gate', Says Analyst As AAPL Stock Caps Off Best Week Since September Launch Stocktwits News Desk Sat, October 17, 2026 at 5:11 AM EDT 4 min read AAPL +0.43% Trade Apple on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Evercore cautioned, however, that extended lead times can reflect either strong demand or constrained supply.
The firm noted that the new form factor could create tighter supply during the initial launch period.
Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster said the latest delivery times are making him more confident in his 20 million-unit iPhone Duo estimate for fiscal 2027.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is getting an early read on demand for its new iPhone Duo, with initial delivery estimates extending well into January shortly after pre-orders opened.
The early demand signals come as Apple shares capped their strongest week since the iPhone Duo launch, with the stock rising over 2% this week, following a nearly 4% rise during the iPhone launch week in September.
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Apple shares ended with a gain of 0.4% in Friday's regular trade, but edged lower by 0.2% in the afterhours session.
According to TheFly, Evercore ISI said iPhone Duo delivery dates quickly pushed out to late January, or roughly 100 days, across all regions and configurations it tracks, after pre-orders began Friday.
The firm views the development as positive for Apple, saying demand is tracking "solidly out of the gate."
Evercore cautioned, however, that extended lead times can reflect either strong demand or constrained supply. The firm noted that the new form factor could create tighter supply during the initial launch period.
Meanwhile, lead times for the iPhone Pro and Pro Max remain "generally stable to shorter" as Apple works through its launch orders, according to Evercore.
The firm maintained its 'Outperform' rating and $380 price target on Apple shares.
Meanwhile, Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster said in a series of posts on X that iPhone Duo lead times had stabilized at Jan. 25, 2027 as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Friday.
Munster said he expects some volatility in the delivery estimates over the next several days but remains encouraged by the initial signal.
"Even factoring in supply will be tight with the new form factor, I still believe the early read is positive vs expectations."
Munster said the latest delivery times are making him more confident in his 20 million-unit iPhone Duo estimate for fiscal 2027, compared with a Street estimate of 10 million units.
At 20 million units, Munster estimates the Duo could account for roughly 8% of Apple's overall iPhone unit sales next year. He also highlighted just how unusual the current lead times are based on his long history tracking Apple's launches.
Munster, however, emphasized the key caveat: Apple's production capacity remains unknown. He ultimately sees the long lead times as evidence that the new iPhone is off to a fast start, even while acknowledging that supply constraints tied to the new form factor could be contributing to the wait.
"While we don't know supply which is lower because of new form factor, the long lead times suggest we're off to a fast start," Munster concluded.
In an update last week, Munster said iPhone 18 Pro lead times have fallen sharply after starting well ahead of the iPhone 17 Pro.
Across eight countries, lead times were initially 15% longer than last year's model, remained 15% higher after one week and then fell to 5% below the year-ago level after two weeks, according to Munster.
"Going into the cycle, I predicted we would see lead times 20% lower than last year given the carrot of the new Duo would pull former Pro buyers up to the Duo," he said.
Munster noted that the iPhone 18 Pro Max has held up better, with lead times now roughly in line with last year's model after initially running 18% longer. He called that a "win" for Apple, estimating that as many as 20% of last year's early Pro Max buyers could be waiting for the Duo.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Apple trended in the 'extremely bearish' territory at the time of writing.
AAPL stock is up 26% year-to-date and 39% over the past 12 months. The S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is up 16% over the past 12 months, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is up 18%.
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