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Investing.com -- Superintelligent AI could outperform human experts across virtually every cognitive task by 2030, potentially transforming business competition and the global economy, according to Deutsche Bank Research.
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In an October 12 report, analysts Adrian Cox and Azeem Azhar examined a scenario in which artificial intelligence advances beyond human-level capabilities through recursive self-improvement.
Under this scenario, using advanced AI would resemble assembling the world's leading experts to solve a business problem, with systems capable of identifying tasks independently rather than simply following instructions.
The technology could eventually become widely accessible, with capabilities comparable to today's most advanced AI models running directly on smartphones, tablets and laptops.
Such developments could dramatically reduce the cost of cognitive work, including software development, scientific research, legal analysis and engineering.
According to the research, AI costs have nearly halved every quarter over the past three years on a comparable-performance basis, representing an approximately thirteenfold annual decline.
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Companies adopting superintelligence could gain substantial competitive advantages, potentially forcing rivals to integrate similar technology or risk losing market share.
However, the analysts cautioned that technological capability alone would not guarantee widespread adoption.
Physical infrastructure, regulatory requirements and organisational resistance could delay implementation, particularly in heavily regulated industries.
Electricity, land, equipment and operating licences could become increasingly valuable as sophisticated cognitive capabilities become cheaper.
The report also identified significant obstacles to achieving superintelligence, including computing requirements, financing constraints and the difficulty of developing AI systems that reliably improve themselves.
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle are expected to spend nearly $800 billion on capital expenditure in 2026, potentially exceeding $1 trillion annually through 2030.
Despite these investments, the researchers emphasised that superintelligence remains uncertain rather than inevitable.
Even without reaching that milestone, AI adoption could deliver substantial productivity improvements and economic benefits as businesses integrate increasingly capable systems into everyday operations.
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