Maybe not, analysts say, but much of what happens next rests on ‘wild card’ Israel
3-MIN READ3-MIN1 ListenFan ChenandAlyssa ChenPublished: 6:21pm, 9 Apr 2026Updated: 6:21pm, 9 Apr 2026Iran’s reclosure of the Strait of Hormuz has strained its tenuous ceasefire with the United States but will not necessarily send the two countries sliding back into war, according to analysts.However, Israel was a wild card, they said, following renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon.The US and Iran agreed to the ceasefire on Tuesday, just before US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the strait or risk being sent back to the “Stone Ages”.AdvertisementTrump said he agreed to “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” in return for the reopening of the strategically important waterway.
He then said on social media that all US military personnel and weapons would stay near Iran until a “real agreement” was reached between the two countries.
“If for any reason it is not [reached], which is highly unlikely, then the ‘Shootin’ Starts’, bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before,” he wrote.
