Tesla-SpaceX Merger Bets Surge -- Prediction Markets See 77% Odds by 2028 Nauman Khan Fri, October 16, 2026 at 4:29 PM EDT TSLA -2.13% SPCX -1.74% KLSH.PVT Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
A potential tie-up between Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is drawing increased attention in prediction markets, where traders now assign a 57% chance of a deal before April 2027, according to a market report.
The changing outlook comes as investors consider whether the companies' overlapping technology interests could lead to a corporate combination. Neither company has confirmed a merger.
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Kalshi contracts show the estimated probability of a deal before Dec. 1 at 15%, rising to 26% before Jan. 1, 2027, and 34% before Feb. 1. The odds reach 39% before March 1 and 59% before May 1. Contracts price the chance of a merger before 2028 at 77%.
Tesla's recent Roadster presentation has added to the discussion. The prototype displayed at a SpaceX facility in Texas used compressed-air thrusters for brief airborne movements, while separate demonstrations reportedly delivered zero-to-60-mph acceleration in 0.81 seconds. Tesla continues to target 2028 for production.
Barclays analysts have also raised the possibility of a deal announcement before Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, due by Dec. 6. Any combination remains speculative, and prediction-market pricing does not establish that negotiations have produced an agreement.
