Nvidia (NVDA): Can Paid Software Make Its Earnings Less Dependent on Hardware Sales? Jeff Lewis Fri, October 16, 2026 at 2:29 PM EDT 4 min read NVDA -1.18% Trade NVIDIA on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) sells AI chips, networking, and systems to cloud providers and enterprises. AI Enterprise and Mission Control add paid software and support to that hardware franchise. As one of the market's most closely watched technology companies, NVIDIA also features among the 10 Most Active Blue Chip Stocks to Buy Right Now.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) benefits from CUDA programming tools that make switching platforms costly. Paid subscriptions offer supported software, security updates, and help avoid downtime, creating a route from customer dependence to recurring profits.
Mission Control schedules workloads and automates recovery, helping customers use expensive systems more efficiently. AI Enterprise lists at $4,500 per GPU annually. However, free alternatives exist, and selected GPUs include five-year licenses. Separate renewals must add customer spending beyond bundled hardware purchases and cover engineering and support costs before the installed base deserves a software valuation premium.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) trades at 25x forward P/E, versus 29x trailing reported earnings. That forward valuation looks attractive, supported by second-quarter revenue growth of 106% and management's $108 billion third-quarter revenue outlook. NVDA also reserves a spot on our list of 20 Best Performing Stocks Over the Last 20 Years.
Analysts expect NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) to increase adjusted EPS from $9.31 in fiscal 2027 to $15.91 in fiscal 2028, approximately 71%. Investment gains also influence the comparison: second-quarter GAAP EPS of $2.46 exceeded adjusted EPS of $2.22. Forecast operating growth is the main support for the lower multiple.
Management expects gross margin to ease from 75% to 74% next quarter. Strong sales must therefore offset some margin pressure. Subscriptions could help, but reported results remain dominated by data-center demand.
Also read: Claude AI Portfolio: 8 Best-Performing Stocks in 2026
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) carried forward P/E multiples of 30x in 2024 and in 2025. Today's lower headline multiple accompanies greater established earnings and cash generation, alongside larger commitments.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) generated $69.9 billion of first-half free cash flow, while supply and capacity commitments reached $279 billion across future years. Delayed customer deployments could leave inventory consuming cash and expose margins to write-downs. June's $25 billion debt issuance adds financing costs.
Subscription renewals could diversify those economics, but the company does not separately disclose these products' recurring revenue or renewal rates. Investors should demand recurring cash after reinvestment before assigning them material value.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) carries a 25x forward P/E against 39x for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), its closest listed AI-accelerator rival. Analysts forecast adjusted EPS growth of approximately 107% for the rival in 2027, versus 71% for the company's fiscal year ending January 2028. These periods largely cover the same calendar year.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) also earns much higher operating margins: approximately 66% under GAAP in its latest quarter versus 17% for the rival, whose PC and embedded businesses broaden its mix. First-half free cash flow represented roughly 39% of sales versus 19% for the rival. Company-adjusted earnings now include stock compensation, while the rival excludes it.
Faster expected peer growth supports some valuation premium, but the profitability and cash-conversion gaps make the discount attractive. Slower growth could still support the valuation if margins and collections hold up; simultaneous weakness would erode that cushion. For most active blue chip stocks, software growth must ultimately become cash.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) looks attractively valued, supported primarily by hardware demand. Paid software could improve resilience if renewals add profit after support costs. Sustained sales growth, margins near guidance, and disciplined inventory conversion support that judgment. Weaker demand accompanied by inventory charges would undermine it before subscriptions could provide meaningful protection.
While we acknowledge the potential of NVDA as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
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This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
