Ludvig Aberg during a practice round at Augusta. REUTERS It sounds counterintuitive, but the best path to success in Masters pools, especially large ones, is being willing to fade the best players in the world. If you want to win, you have to be comfortable with some risk.
Game theory. When everyone is selecting from the same pool of players, one of the simplest ways to create upside is by avoiding the trendy options (usually the best players) and pivoting to less common choices.
Take this example. In a pool with 1,000 entries, if 75 percent of the field builds their lineup around Rory McIlroy, it can make sense to fade him, even if you believe he is likely to contend. If you anchor your roster with Rory and he wins, great, but you are still competing against hundreds of similar lineups, which means the rest of your picks better be perfect.
But if Rory falters, he takes a large portion of the field down with him. And if your pivot hits, you move from being in the running to having a legitimate chance to win the entire pool.
With that in mind, we’ve compiled a list of five players to avoid if you’re looking to give yourself the best chance to win your annual Masters pool.
An interesting development ahead of this year’s Masters is that DeChambeau, not Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy, seems to be the trendiest pick across the market. It’s like the golf world decided this is Bryson’s year.
Maybe that ends up being the case, but it’s far from a foregone conclusion.
It’s easy to see why DeChambeau has attracted more money than any other player in the field at BetMGM. He’s been dominant on LIV this season, he has finished T6 and T5, respectively, in his last two trips to Augusta, and he’s a former major champion. Boxes ticked.
Bryson DeChambeau has a mixed history at Augusta National. REUTERS But he’s also a volatile player with some serious baggage at this course.
Not only did DeChambeau miss the cut in two of his last four trips to Augusta, but last year’s T5 was actually a severe disappointment for the 32-year-old. DeChambeau was in the final pairing Sunday with McIlroy but fell to pieces, fading to fifth while McIlroy and Justin Rose duked it out for the Green Jacket.
With so many people jumping on the Bryson bandwagon, you should probably get off.
One of the most promising talents in the sport, Aberg seems destined to win a Green Jacket at some point in his career. But that doesn’t mean he will.
According to BetMGM’s data, only two players (DeChambeau and Scheffler) have attracted more bets to win the Masters than Aberg.
Once again, it’s easy to see why the Swede is popular. He’s in impeccable form with three consecutive fifth-place finishes on the PGA Tour, and his history at Augusta is eye-popping, albeit in a short sample.
Aberg has played in two Masters, finishing second in 2024 and seventh last year.
There are, however, some things going against the 26-year-old. While he has had success at Augusta, Aberg has struggled mightily at the other majors, missing four of six cuts.
And like DeChambeau, Aberg will need to overcome some demons from last year when he was tied with McIlroy and Rose with two holes to go, only to shoot 4-over par on the 17th and 18th holes to tumble to seventh.
Aberg’s time may come, but too many people think it’s already here.
A favorite among first-round leader bettors, Rose is also getting plenty of love in the outright markets, too.
One year after coming up just short as a triple-digit long shot, Rose is now down to 30/1 for this year’s Masters. That seems a crazy price for a player who is as boom-or-bust as they come these days.
Rose has played six events in 2026 and here are his results: MC, 1, T37, MC, MC, T13. That seems like the profile of a player you want to fade, especially since he’s trendy.
Chris Gotterup will make his Masters debut in 2026. Getty Images Chris Gotterup One of the best players on the PGA Tour this year, Gotterup is the chalk to be the top debutant in this year’s field. The keyword there is debutant.
You can be in the form of your life, but if you’re playing in your first Masters, it simply doesn’t matter that much.
Trouble lurks at every corner at Augusta National, and the spectacle can be overwhelming, so buyer better beware of any popular rookies, no matter how impressive they’ve been on other courses.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
