Bettors are rattled by mounting accusations surrounding leading Democrat Eric Swalwell, shifting odds toward billionaire progressive Tom Steyer in California’s governor’s race.
In a graph shared Wednesday, Benjamin Freeman, in charge of politics growth at betting platform Kalshi, noted that Steyer’s likelihood to win the race surged to 33%, corresponding with a huge dip of Swalwell’s odds, now at 39%.
According to Kalshi, Swalwell’s huge nose-dive started April 4 when he was at 57.8% odds and Steyer was at 14.4%. The following day, Steyer dropped to 44.7%.
That same day was when Cheyenne Hunt, a Democratic Gen Z activist and former congressional candidate, went to social media to claim she was working with a group of women who had experienced misconduct by Swalwell, alluding to a press report that may be published soon.
Swalwell said Tuesday after a Sacramento town hall that the allegations were “false.”
“There has never been an allegation and there has never been a settlement,” he told reporters then.
The allegations against the East Bay congressman — who is married and has three children — started circulating further on social media over the past few days, claiming that Swalwell engaged in inappropriate conduct with younger women connected to his office or campaign.
California gubernatorial candidate Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., listens to a question from the audience during a town hall meeting in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, April 7, 2026. AP Competitors in the gubernatorial race have seized on the public relations crisis, including Steyer.
“Funny how Eric Swalwell’s social media feed has gone quiet about prediction markets,” posted Kevin Liao, a spokesperson for the Steyer campaign.
Polling so far still has Swalwell as one of the leading, if not the leading, Democratic candidate in the race. A poll released Wednesday from David Binder Research said Swalwell has the support of 32% of Democratic voters, a commanding lead over former Congresswoman Katie Porter at 17% and Steyer at 16%.
That said, the poll was conducted between April 1 and April 6, mostly before the bombshell accusations dropped.
