Tesla Stock Rises as the Roadster Revives SpaceX Merger Talk Gian Estrada Fri, October 16, 2026 at 10:12 AM EDT 3 min read TSLA +0.44% SPCX -1.62% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) stock rose about 4% early Friday, to around $377, after the company unveiled its long-delayed Roadster on Thursday night at SpaceX's test site in McGregor, Texas.
The car uses cold-gas thrusters built with SpaceX (SPCX), whose shares rose about 2%, and in the demo it lifted off, flipped and landed. "Turns out the future does have flying cars," Elon Musk said at the event, per Fox Business. With production not planned until 2028, the bigger story for shareholders is the company behind the thrusters.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy sees a possible merger announcement before Tesla's shareholder meeting, which he expects by December 6, and envisions an all-stock deal with SpaceX acquiring Tesla.
The mean of 38 analyst price targets is $397.83, only about 6% above Friday's early price. The spread around it stands out: the low target is $128.11 and the high is $600, a range from roughly 66% downside to 59% upside.
The ratings are just as split. Tesla has 15 buys and 4 outperforms, against 21 holds, 3 no opinions, 2 underperforms and 2 sells. Sells have dropped from 7 at the end of 2025, but holds have climbed from 17 a year ago. Fewer bears, more fence-sitters.
In an all-stock deal, Tesla holders would swap a carmaker's shares for a stake in a rocket and satellite company. The argument over whether Tesla deserves $128 or $600 would turn into an argument over the exchange ratio.
The hurdles are real: regulatory approvals (China especially) and governance questions, since Musk holds a larger voting stake in SpaceX. Gene Munster also called the Roadster demo an engineering showcase with little direct commercial value for Tesla.
Everything hinges on whether talks exist. If an all-stock deal is announced, the exchange terms and SpaceX's share price would determine the implied offer value for Tesla shareholders. The 21 hold ratings alone do not establish whether analysts are waiting for a merger. Without a deal, Tesla goes back to being judged on its car business when it reports third-quarter results on October 21.
On those numbers, the Roadster is a rounding error for a stock trading at 186x earnings. That's the likelier near-term test. Merger speculation may have contributed to Friday's pop, but I believe that the rally does not establish that talks are underway.
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