Copper Prices Could Be A Key Test For Freeport McMoRan Stock Sasha Jovanovic Thu, October 15, 2026 at 11:13 PM EDT 4 min read FCX +0.85% HG=F +1.17% GC=F +0.55% Trade FCX on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Freeport-McMoRan reported third quarter 2026 copper production of about 830 million pounds and gold output of roughly 230 thousand ounces, broadly in line with internal expectations despite a shift in gold sales timing.
The deferral of around 60 thousand ounces of refined gold sales into the fourth quarter and guidance for lower Q3 gold sales highlight how shipment schedules and Indonesian smelter logistics can influence reported results, even when underlying mine performance tracks plan.
The focus now turns to how Freeport-McMoRan's Q3 production, which is in line with expectations, could shape the broader investment narrative around the stock.
Spot 16 top copper producer stocks that could also benefit if higher copper pricing and electrification themes that support Freeport-McMoRan keep drawing capital into the sector.
To own Freeport-McMoRan, you need to be comfortable with a copper-heavy story in which volume from U.S. leach projects and Grasberg is intended to support long-term earnings. The latest production update, roughly in line with plan, suggests the short-term focus remains on execution rather than any reset of the operating story.
The near-term catalyst is the Q3 2026 earnings release on October 27, with investors watching how realized copper pricing interacts with slightly lower sales volumes and deferred gold. The biggest current risk remains operational and regulatory complexity in Indonesia, where shipment timing and smelter logistics can quickly affect reported results.
The most relevant update is Freeport-McMoRan's guidance that Q3 2026 copper sales should approximate 750 million pounds, while gold sales are pegged near 100 thousand ounces, lower than prior expectations because of deferrals. That framing matters more for upcoming earnings optics than for the underlying mine plans.
For investors, the link back to catalysts is straightforward. If the leach program, Grasberg ramp, U.S. throughput gains, and projects like Bagdad continue to progress within budget, then quarterly timing noise around Indonesian gold shipments appears more like a modeling issue than a thesis breaker. Execution against those projects remains the key swing factor.
Freeport-McMoRan's current analyst narrative points to revenues of US$39.0b and earnings of US$5.2b by 2029, built on an assumed 14.7% yearly revenue growth rate and an earnings increase of about US$2.3b from US$2.9b today.
Uncover why Freeport-McMoRan's fair value indicates a 4% potential upside to its current price, which could narrow quickly.
One bullish twist on Freeport-McMoRan centers on earnings power. The most optimistic analysts were modeling revenue of about US$51.5b and earnings near US$9.3b by 2029 before this Q3 production news, far above consensus. That crowd sees leach growth and Indonesian integration transforming the story, although these views may shift as fresh data lands.
Explore 3 other Freeport-McMoRan fair value estimates, including one that suggests there could be as much as 51% upside from the current price.
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
A great starting point for your Freeport-McMoRan research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan. The report includes a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual, the Snowflake, making it easy to evaluate Freeport-McMoRan's overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include FCX.
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