These last few games are increasingly important for teams that have something to prove when the competition level steps up in the postseason and the Suns are a prime example of that.
The Suns host the Rockets Tuesday night in the second game of the NBA on NBC doubleheader as they look to secure the seventh spot in the West standings and a home play-in game.
The Rockets have something to prove, too, entering this game with 49 wins and one game back of the third-place Nuggets and fourth-place Lakers.
The spread for this game is razor thin with the Rockets listed as 1-point favorites, per bet365, on the road, and their record in close games has been suspect, which is something they’ll be looking to prove is a fluke.
The Rockets have owned this series all season with wins against the Suns in November, December and January. Neither side was fully healthy in any of the three previous games, but their rotations are essentially set going forward.
The Suns have been trying to work Dillon Brooks back into the lineup after he missed over a month with a hand injury. Mark Williams also returned to the starting five after missing most of March with a foot injury.
The Suns have been a bettor’s best friend all season with a 46-32 record against the spread, which is third-best in the league.
Suns forward Dillon Brooks #3 is back in the lineup playing his signature style of defense. Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images They took advantage of the fact that opponents just didn’t take their roster seriously for most of the season and won games with defense and timely shotmaking. Even if they didn’t win those games outright, they fought tooth and nail to keep themselves competitive.
Teams know not to take the Suns lightly now and the Rockets’ defense is just as gritty. They rank fourth in points allowed per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass and hold teams to the sixth-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA.
Offensively, the Rockets are superior, too. Both teams have issues with variety, but Kevin Durant has proven to be a better late-game option than Devin Booker or Brooks, who tend to end up with the ball for the Suns late in games.
If this game comes down to crunch time as the odds suggest, I have more faith in Durant coming through for his team than anyone on the Suns.
I’ll bet the Rockets to sweep the season series in dramatic fashion.
The Play: Rockets moneyline (-116, FanDuel)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
