Braylon Mullins (l) and UConn are underdogs against Illinois in the Final Four. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Three out of four correct selections in the Final Four. A 4-0 run during the Elite Eight.
The last time I was curious about the insight of the world’s worst return on investment, it said that Purdue would make the Final Four because of Zach Edey.
They met in November, when the Huskies earned a wire-to-wire 13-point victory.
It was the first time the teams had met since 2024, when UConn embarrassed Illinois in the Elite Eight, 77-52.
The players have changed, but the coaches have been the constant, tilting the edge to Dan Hurley, who is looking for his third national championship in the past four years — a feat not achieved since John Wooden — and has covered 17 of 18 NCAA Tournament games since 2024.
UConn may lose the battle on the boards, but it overcame such deficits against Duke and Michigan State.
Even if the Huskies continue their cold stretch from deep — excluding Braylon Mullins’ miracle — Hurley can lean on perhaps the best performer in this tournament (Tarris Reed Jr.) and the most experienced player in the field (Alex Karaban).
Illinois’ top-rated offense relies heavily on 3s, taking more than half its shots beyond the arc, but Hurley’s defense will make the Illini earn clean looks.
UConn holds teams under 31 percent from deep and has allowed fewer 3s attempted than 333 other teams in the nation. In its past two meetings against Hurley, Illinois shot under 29 percent on 3s.
Yaxel Lendeborg of Michigan gestures against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half in the Elite Eight of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at the United Center on March 29, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Getty Images Michigan (-1.5) over Arizona It would be a mistake to label this the de facto national championship — see: Houston vs. Louisville (1983), Kentucky vs. Wisconsin (2015) — but it would also be a surprise if the winner of this game didn’t end up with the title.
Michigan and Arizona have the nation’s two highest-rated defenses, top-five offenses and an equal split of six projected first-round picks in the next NBA Draft.
The Wildcats have been a bit more consistent this season, but the Wolverines have the higher ceiling.
It begins with the foundation of a loaded front line that ranks top-five in the nation in two-point defense and block rate, top 10 in rebounding percentage and top 15 in fewest fouls.
This presents problems for an Arizona team that relies on points in the paint and points at the line.
The Wildcats have been a throwback, dominating despite attempting the seventh-fewest 3s in the nation this season, but the math will not work in their favor in such an even matchup.
In 2008, No. 1 Memphis entered the NCAA Tournament with the worst free-throw shooting percentage in the field. In the final minute of the season, it finally caught up to them.
Arizona’s aversion to 3s is due to become a factor, too.
Howie Kussoy has long been the New York Post’s main handicapper in college basketball (since 2011) and college football (since 2013).
