How Risky Is Chipotle Stock? Trefis Team Wed, October 14, 2026 at 2:04 PM EDT CMG -0.36% MCD +0.69% SBUX +1.04% YUM -0.46% QSR +1.12% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) have fallen 18% over the past month, contrasting with a 2.5% gain for the S&P 500. This drop occurred without any new results from the company. When the whole market has sold off before, did Chipotle fall further than the S&P 500, and how long did it stay down?
Chipotle Stock Has Taken Bigger Hits Than The Index
In market sell-offs since 2007, Chipotle stock fell an average of 24.2%, compared to a 15.8% drop for the S&P 500 over the same periods. The steepest decline occurred during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis. The stock lost 75.0% over that span, while the S&P 500 lost 53.0%.
From the bottom of these slumps, Chipotle took a median of 1.8 months to reclaim its pre-sell-off high. The stock recovered completely every time. Three of those rebounds required more than a year, however. After the 2008-2009 low, the stock needed 18.8 months. The slowest recoveries came after the 2014-2016 sell-offs, when the stock fell far more than the S&P 500 and took 42.0 months to get back to its earlier high.
Chipotle Has Expanded, And Now Earns Thinner Profits
Over the past twelve months, Chipotle generated $12.4 billion in revenue. This marks an increase from the $6.8 billion it reported five years earlier. Sales are still expanding, as second-quarter 2026 revenue climbed 9.3% from a year earlier.
Despite higher sales, profitability has narrowed. The company reported an operating margin of 15.4% over the past twelve months, down from 17.3% a year earlier. Chipotle has no borrowings, however. Counting its lease obligations as debt, they equal 13.9% of its market value, against 20.1% for the S&P 500.
Where Chipotle's Business Is Under Strain Now
During the second quarter, Chipotle enacted menu price increases that failed to keep pace with its costs. On the July 29, 2026 call, management reported a 25.2% profit margin at its restaurants for the quarter. This figure is down 220 basis points from a year earlier. The cost of sales climbed to 29.7%, representing an increase of about 80 basis points from a year earlier. Management stated this rise occurred mainly because of inflation in beef and freight. On the July call, management said it expected the gap between menu prices and cost inflation to ease in the second half of the year.
Sales have weakened as well. In the weeks preceding the call, management said an industry-wide Cyclospora issue cut sales by about 200 basis points. Chipotle does not use the products involved in the outbreak. Even so, management could not predict how long the hit would last.
In July, management guided for comparable restaurant sales to rise about 1% in the third quarter. This target represents a slowdown from 2.2% growth in the second quarter. The projection assumes the cyclospora hit continues. Management also stated the third quarter faces a harder comparison because Chipotle ran heavier promotions a year earlier. On the same call, management raised its full-year guide for comparable sales growth to the low single-digit range. Against the guide of about 1%, comparable restaurant sales are the figure to watch in Chipotle's third-quarter report.
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