Matthew Schaefer has 22 goals on the season for the Islanders. Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images The Islanders play their third “must-win” game of the week on Friday, hosting the Flyers in a battle between two teams separated by just three points in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
The Flyers head to Long Island after dropping a critical contest to the Red Wings on Thursday night, while the Isles are licking their wounds following back-to-back losses against the Penguins and Sabres.
Two points for the Islanders would cut their magic number to 10, and all but end Philadelphia’s hopes of getting into the postseason.
The Islanders are -142 favorites to win on Friday, which is a pretty lukewarm number given the schedule spot. Philadelphia lost a massive game on Thursday night, while the Isles have been off since Tuesday.
Ilya Sorokin will get the start for the Islanders in goal, while Dan Vladar will man the blue paint for the Flyers. On paper, the Isles have a distinct edge with Sorokin, but Vladar has been a net positive for Philadelphia this season.
And frankly, it won’t matter how Sorokin plays if the Isles continue to have several defensive breakdowns a game. After some tidy performances against the Blue Jackets, Stars, and Panthers last week, the Islanders melted down against Pittsburgh on Monday, and then lapsed in a crucial moment against Buffalo the next night, throwing away points that could have them comfortably in the playoffs by now.
Trevor Zegras is second on the Flyers with 61 points. Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images The good news is that the Flyers are not an offensive juggernaut. Philadelphia ranks 23rd in goals per game, has the worst power play in the NHL, and has created the 24th-most expected goals at 5-on-5 this season.
The Islanders are no offensive force, either, so they’ll need to find a way to keep this game tidy. The Flyers are built to do the same. With the stakes so high, I’d expect the first period to be a chess match, with scoring chances hard to come by as these two teams feel one another out. That puts value on the first period to end scoreless, which is +320 at FanDuel.
There’s also a player prop that stands out for this one. Matthew Schaefer hasn’t scored in six games, but it’s not for lack of trying. The soon-to-be-anointed Rookie of the Year has registered 27 shots on goal and a whopping 59 shot attempts in that span. It’s only a matter of time before he finds the back of the net again, tying Brian Leetch’s mark for most goals by a rookie defenseman in NHL history.
The Plays: 1P under 0.5 goals (+320, FanDuel) | Matthew Schaefer to score 1+ goals (+340, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
