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If you're a high-risk/high-reward type of investor, you've almost certainly looked at stocks in the hottest emerging industries like quantum, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) air taxis, and satellite networks.
But these industries are full of would-be superstars, and it's almost a sure bet that not all of the players will end up winners. Here are 6 of the best bets in these competitive sectors, and how much a $1,000 investment in each one could be worth by 2030. We'll look at what will have to go right in order for them to succeed, and what will happen if they don't.
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Unlike many of its fellow quantum computing start-ups, D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ: QBTS) has focused primarily on quantum annealing, which is particularly well-suited to tackling system optimization problems. But D-Wave recently announced it was entering the traditional gate-model system market as well.
The Risk: While quantum annealing is an important niche, it's starting to look like a less-profitable niche than gate-based quantum computing. And while that means D-Wave may have made the right move by getting into that market, it's a late entrant compared to both its peers and big corporations like IBM (NYSE: IBM). It risks getting left in the dust on both fronts.
How much will $1,000 be worth in 2030? $200 to $4,000
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) designs and manufactures gate-model quantum computing systems powered by superconducting quantum processors. It also offers third-party developers cloud-based access to its quantum systems, allowing them to be used by customers without a quantum computer of their own.
The Risk: It's starting to look as though Rigetti's quantum processors -- which use quantum particles created by superconductors -- aren't as accurate as processors that use trapped-ion particles. Rigetti's highest deployed two-qubit gate fidelity system is 98.71%, a far cry (at least, in computing terms) from rival Quantinuum's (NASDAQ: QNT) best-in-class 99.921%.
Rigetti will need to demonstrate that it can compete in a highly competitive landscape, and there's a lot of time for things to change.
How much will $1,000 be worth in 2030? $250 to $6,000
Number of shares in $1,000: 201.6
Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) develops eVTOL aircraft designed for short-distance air taxi service. It owns the Hawthorne Municipal Airport, just over 4 miles from LAX (by air), and plans to operate its air taxi services from there and in various other major U.S. and world cities.
The Risk: The biggest risk for Archer is that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will find a serious flaw in its eVTOL design that delays commercial approval beyond 2028, when the company is supposed to be the official air taxi of the Los Angeles Olympics. In that case, its stock would likely lose over 50% of its value.
How much will $1,000 be worth in 2030? $400 to $5,000
Number of shares in $1,000: 183.8
Like Archer, Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) develops eVTOLs for air taxi service.
The Risk: Besides a risk of the same FAA issues faced by Archer, there's a real question about how much money eVTOL air taxi services can realistically make once the novelty wears off. On the other hand, the technology being developed might have potential for use in military drones.
How much will $1,000 be worth in 2030? $400 to $5,000
Industry: Satellite Communications
AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) is building a space-based cellular broadband network that will allow smartphones and other wireless devices to connect directly to satellites without requiring specialized equipment.
The Risk: AST may not be able to keep up with its deep-pocketed rival, Starlink, which is owned by Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), or SpaceX.
How much will $1,000 be worth in 2030? $500 to $3,000
Number of shares in $1,000: 185.5
SoundHound AI (NASDAQ: SOUN) develops AI-powered voice recognition to create conversational AI agents for its customers, who use them in automated systems like restaurant ordering systems and customer service help lines.
The Risk: With AI agents facing so much recent bad press and with AI incredibly unpopular in general, the risk for SoundHound is now twofold: industry competition and customer revolt.
How much will $1,000 be worth in 2030? $150 to $6,000
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John Bromels has positions in Quantinuum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, International Business Machines, and SoundHound AI. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
$1,000 in Each of These 6 Quantum, Air Taxi, and Satellite Stocks Could Be Worth This Much by 2030 was originally published by The Motley Fool
