When Palantir's CEO and the Chart Say the Same Thing, Pay Attention Trefis Team Tue, October 13, 2026 at 12:34 PM EDT 4 min read PLTR -1.04% ^GSPC -0.13% MSFT +0.75% AMZN +0.20% GOOG +0.53% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance on August 3. The stock is up 69.8% since the preceding close, against 4.2% for the S&P 500. A higher forecast from management and a rising share price do not always arrive at the same time. A stock displaying both warrants a closer look. Here is the guidance Palantir raised, what the chart shows, and what could push the stock higher.
How Much Did Palantir Lift Its 2026 Forecast?
Management raised its revenue guide for fiscal 2026 to between $8.15 billion and $8.158 billion. The prior expectation was $7.66 billion. That amounts to 6.5% more than it forecast before for the same year. Management called this the largest full-year revenue guidance raise it has ever made. The revision moves a projection higher, rather than counting sales already made.
Management pointed to the U.S. business, where revenue grew 115% from a year earlier in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. On the same August 3 call, the company noted that businesses want sovereign AI.
The raise went beyond total revenue. Management lifted its guide for U.S. commercial revenue, which covers sales to businesses in the U.S., to more than $3.424 billion from $3.22 billion. Every other full-year line the company revised moved up as well, including adjusted free cash flow. Management guided no line lower.
Palantir Shares Are In A Rising Trend
Palantir stock sits above both averages that chart readers track. The shares closed at $209.00 on October 12, 2026. The shorter average, which measures the closing price over the last 50 trading days, stood at $178.70. The longer average, tracking the same measure over 200 trading days, stood at $152.41. A price above its shorter average, combined with a shorter average above the longer one, defines a rising trend.
The gain arrived in two parts. The stock rose 32.2% during the two sessions around the release, against 3.3% for the S&P 500. That move priced the quarter's results and the new guide together. Palantir has added another 28.5% since then, while the index gained 0.9%. A trend describes historical price action, and it is not a forecast of what comes next.
What Does Palantir Need From The Rest Of 2026?
Palantir can meet its raised guide even if growth slows from the first half of fiscal 2026. Two quarters of fiscal 2026 are still to be reported. The guide leaves about $4.6 billion of revenue for those periods. That translates to 77.2% growth over the same quarters last year, against 89.0% in the two quarters already reported.
The U.S. commercial segment could push results past the guide. Its revenue grew 149% from a year earlier in the second quarter. Management outlined a goal to grow the whole company at least as fast as U.S. commercial over the next 18 months, calling that a very high goal. That remains a goal, not a component of the formal guide. Buyers are already paying for a lot of growth. The stock trades at 166.3 times earnings, against 21.9 for the S&P 500.
For now, management's forecast aligns with the chart. Two variables remain unknown. The first is whether the upcoming two quarters will clear the raised guide. The second is whether U.S. commercial will continue to grow faster than the rest of Palantir. A quarter that falls short of the guide, or a share price dipping below its two averages, would end that alignment. Third-quarter revenue, set against management's guide of $2.16 billion to $2.164 billion for that quarter, is the number to watch at Palantir's next report.
Now you know PLTR better. And that's our purpose: to make you informed before you invest your money. However, making a bet on a single stock carries its own risks.
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