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When Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public in June, the market loved the concept, but no one was calling it a bargain. Shares available to the public traded at around 100 times trailing 12-month sales, which is objectively pricey.
The company reported strong growth in its first public earnings report, released in August for the second quarter. As sales went up, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio has come down, and today, SpaceX stock trades at 68 times sales. However, sometimes valuation is subjective, which is why a company like Palantir Technologies can command a P/S of 87, while Sandisk's multiple is only 12 despite growing much faster.
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There are always other factors that help determine the valuation, and one Wall Street analyst says that SpaceX stock is cheap.
SpaceX reported a 92% increase in sales in Q2 2026, its first as a public company. That was driven by all of its segments, which include the SpaceX rocket-launching business, the Starlink satellite broadband business, and the xAI artificial intelligence (AI) business, which grew 55%, 32%, and 213%, respectively. However, only Starlink is profitable right now, and SpaceX reported a total net loss of $541 million.
These are promising results, and investors are willing to pay up for what they believe will become a massive player in AI and the space economy. Starlink already has more than 11,000 satellites in space, and the company is developing mini data center satellites using solar energy to provide cheap compute power for AI developers. This would tie all its segments together as SpaceX launches the Starlink satellites into low Earth orbit.
Most investors would admit that this is a premium price, but some say it's worth it. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, however, says that SpaceX stock is "Cheap and Getting Cheaper" as he titled a note last week. According to his calculations, SpaceX stock trades at 30 times 2028's expected profit, nearly double the median of 16 for big tech companies.
However, he makes another calculation that changes this narrative. If you divide 30 by the expected earnings growth rate, you get 0.3, below the 0.5 median for large-cap companies. "Adjusted for growth," he said, "SpaceX is one of the cheaper ways to play the strong optionality of the space and intelligence economy." He sets a $300 price target for SpaceX over the next 12 months, nearly double today's $162 price. That's not the highest target, though; Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale is looking for $800.
Expected growth should certainly be part of any investor's decision to buy a stock, but it can be risky because it hasn't happened yet. Any forward-looking valuation method is tricky because of that, and even more so an expected growth rate still two years down the line. It's also just one piece of a puzzle, and standard valuation measures like the P/S ratio and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio shouldn't be ignored.
Jonas seems to be somewhat alone in his assessment that SpaceX is cheap, and investors should factor in his results, but keep in mind that in most ways, SpaceX is expensive and still risky.
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Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Is SpaceX Stock Cheap? 1 Wall Street Analyst Thinks So. was originally published by The Motley Fool
