Did The Market Read Super Micro Computer Stock Right? Trefis Team Mon, October 12, 2026 at 7:09 PM EDT 4 min read SMCI -4.48% ^GSPC -0.06% DELL -1.59% HPE -4.26% ANET -2.70% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
Shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) returned 65.7% between April 12 and October 9, 2026, easily outpacing the 15.2% gain for the S&P 500. Most of that rally occurred during the final three months of the period, a stretch that featured the company's August 11 quarterly update following an earlier release in early May. The August report included executive projections for significantly higher sales, though those forecasts are not results yet. So what did Super Micro tell investors in those two reports?
What Super Micro Told Investors In May And August
In early May, Super Micro posted fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $10.24 billion, climbing 123% from a year earlier. The company also saw its adjusted gross margin recover to 10.1%. Shares climbed in extended trade once executives delivered an outlook for fiscal Q4 2026 that beat expectations.
During the August 11 call, executives detailed fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $11.1 billion, a 93% increase from a year earlier. Super Micro also secured more than $60 billion of new orders in that single quarter, pushing its backlog to a record level.
Super Micro was not alone in its rally, however, and the stock actually rose far less than two other server makers over the same six months. Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise each returned more than 190%, suggesting buyers were paying up for server makers as a group.
How High Is Super Micro Guiding For Fiscal 2027?
On the August 11 call, executives provided fiscal 2027 sales guidance of $65 billion to $72 billion. Super Micro generated $39.1 billion in sales over the last twelve months, meaning the low end of that new forecast is about two-thirds higher.
Server and storage systems accounted for 97% of its fiscal 2025 revenue, meaning the forecast covers nearly everything Super Micro sells.
The company came close to missing its previous forecast, however. Revenue for fiscal Q4 2026 landed near the low end of management's own guide. Executives blamed the result on short-term delays at customers whose power and cooling were not ready, and they expect to recognize that revenue in later quarters.
Super Micro Still Makes Little On Each Server Sold
Super Micro's gross margin, which measures the share of sales left after the cost of building its systems, was 10.8% over the last twelve months. That figure stood at 18.0% three years ago, and it has been lower in each twelve-month period since.
The fiscal Q4 2026 margin looked much better, reaching 17.6% on the adjusted measure. Executives noted that about 75% of the 750 basis point improvement from the quarter before came from a better customer and product mix. The remaining 25% came from lower tariff costs and lower inventory reserves, which the company called perhaps a one-time benefit.
That profit did not turn into cash either. Super Micro earned $2.2 billion over the last twelve months, yet its operations used $6.8 billion of cash. The latest quarter did show improvement, with operations providing $747 million of cash in fiscal Q4 2026 after using $6.6 billion in the quarter before. This twelve-month shortfall may explain why investors still pay only 11.5 times earnings for the stock even after its recent rise, compared to 21.9 for the S&P 500.
Looking ahead, executives guided for a gross margin of 10.4% to 10.8% for fiscal Q1 2027, based on their expected customer and product mix. That range sits far below the adjusted 17.6% achieved in the fourth quarter. Fiscal Q1 2027 has already ended and its results are pending. If the final number comes in well above the guided range, it would suggest the better customer and product mix behind the fourth quarter's gain is holding.
Does This Mean You Should Act On SMCI?
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