Make New York Post a Preferred Source Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect For all their on-field similarities, the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians took very different paths to the ALCS.
Tampa Bay took over first place in the AL East for good on June 28 and never looked back, clinching the top spot in the American League along the way. The Rays then made quick work of the Yankees in the ALDS, never trailing in the series. The MLB Playoffs began on Sept. 28; Tampa Bay has played on just three of the 13 days since.
The Guardians, meanwhile, were 60-65 on Aug. 16 and six games back of the White Sox in the AL Central. Cleveland erased that deficit by going 25-12 down the stretch to surpass Chicago and earn a bye into the ALDS. Pitted against the White Sox in that series, the Guardians fell behind 2-0 before rhyming off three wins on the spin to win the series and earn a trip to the ALCS.
Cleveland’s resilience is certainly noteworthy, but Tampa’s consistency, blended with home-field advantage and a major rest edge, has added up to the Rays sitting as -170 favorites to advance to the World Series.
Tampa Bay is also a similar price for Game 1 on Monday.
The Rays are a versatile, relentless team that can put pressure on you in a number of ways. They’ve got pop in the heart of the order with Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and Jonathan Aranda, but they’re also experts at winning by 1,000 paper cuts. Once one Ray gets on base, the heat gets turned up.
Against a team like the Yankees, who needed everything to stay on-script to have a chance, Tampa Bay flourished. Kevin Cash was made for that kind of series.
Like the Rays, the Guardians put the bat on the ball and then drive you up a wall once they get going. They don’t have the sluggers that Tampa Bay boasts, but everybody in this lineup can do a job. They work you to the bone and will put pressure on you with small-ball tactics.
Cleveland Guardians third baseman José Ramírez. AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki And while the season-long numbers were not pretty, Jose Ramirez has looked his vintage self in the playoffs, giving Cleveland a presence at the top of the order that they’ve sorely needed in 2026.
The Rays may get to set the ALCS up to their liking thanks to their rest advantage, but this best-of-seven series projects to be one full of ups, downs, zigs, and zags, which should mute that advantage.
Tampa Bay is the better team and the deserving favorite, but Cleveland is red hot, full of gusto, and has the pieces to give the Rays a taste of their own medicine.
Cleveland has value against Drew Rasmussen in Game 1, but they’re also worth a look on the series moneyline, too.
The Play: Guardians to win Game 1 (+144) | Guardians to win ALCS (+140, DraftKings)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
