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With certain market valuation metrics flashing warning signs and a few high-profile investors calling for a stock market crash, now can be a scary time to invest in stocks. However, it shouldn't be.
Yes, Michael Burry, who previously called the housing collapse, has called for a major correction, as has billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio. At the same time, the CAPE ratio is at roughly the same level as before the dot-com crash, while Warren Buffett's favorite valuation metric (the total market cap of U.S. stocks divided by U.S. GDP) is at a historic high. This has led to a lot of nerve-wracking headlines lately.
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However, in times like this, it would be prudent to follow the advice of one of America's greatest fund managers, Peter Lynch. As the manager of Fidelity's flagship Magellan Fund, Lynch racked up an astonishing 29.2% annual average return during his long tenure, and he was never afraid of a bear market. In a 1995 essay in Worth magazine, he famously said, "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves."
In the article, Lynch noted that if you had invested the same amount every year on Jan. 1 from 1965 until 1994, the year before the article was written, it would have returned an average annual rate of 11%. However, if you had invested at the market peak each year, your average return would be only slightly lower, at 10.6%. As such, he concluded that: "[i]n the long run it doesn't matter whether your timing is good or bad. What matters is that you stay invested in stocks."
With that in mind, let's look at four exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to dollar-cost average into whether a stock market correction is coming or not.
If you decide you only want to invest in one ETF, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) would be my first choice. It gives investors an instantly diversified portfolio of the country's 500 largest stocks, and has a track record that is hard to beat. In fact, over the past decade, only 14% of actively managed large-cap U.S. funds have beaten the index.
With an average annual total return of 15.7% over the past 10 years, this is a must-have core holding.
Growth and technology stocks have led the market higher for much of the past decade, and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index, is a great way to play this trend. In fact, as other funds have struggled to top the S&P 500, it has done so consistently and is up an average total return of 21.1% over the past decade.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to be the greatest technological innovation of our time, and the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (NASDAQ: AIQ) is a great way to invest in the sector. It invests in stocks set to benefit from AI, from semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and cloud computing stocks like Alphabet to AI agent companies like Meta Platforms and AI software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks like Palantir. It's been a strong performer over the past three years, with total return price gains averaging 33.6% annually.
While growth stocks have led the charge the past decade, value stocks also have their place in a portfolio, and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEMKT: SCHD) is one of the top funds in this category. The ETF invests in dividend-paying stocks and has a yield of 3.4%, but the index it follows focuses on dividend growth sustainability and seeks to avoid value traps. That has resulted in the ETF's total returns outperforming the value category over the past 10 years, up 12.8% versus 11.1% for the category. Meanwhile, it's up an impressive 31.4% year to date versus 12% for the average value fund, according to Morningstar.
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Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Alphabet, Invesco QQQ Trust, Meta Platforms, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, Palantir Technologies, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Afraid of a Stock Market Crash? 4 Great ETFs to Buy Regardless. was originally published by The Motley Fool
