Adding Nvidia During The Current Uncertainty is How Fortunes Are Made Alex Sirois Mon, October 12, 2026 at 7:15 AM EDT 5 min read NVDA -0.52% AMD -2.03% ORCL +4.59% CRWV +0.61% AVGO +0.39% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
NVIDIA's revenue hit $96B last quarter, up 106% year over year, with Q3 guidance at $108B and supply tight through fiscal 2028.
AMD trades at a P/E of ~229 with 56% gross margins versus NVIDIA's 75%, making it a pricier bet on a smaller AI business.
NVIDIA has $279B in supply commitments and finances its own customers, creating real risk if AI spending stalls.
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I have bought NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) in calm months and ugly ones. Every time the market panics about AI, I add more. Last week gave me another chance when Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sank on an OpenAI revenue report. I bought again.
The case is simple. NVIDIA sells the equipment that runs the AI economy, and its customers want more than it can build. On the latest call, management said customer forecasts point to growth doubling next year. NVIDIA still expects revenue to grow approximately 70% in fiscal 2028 because it can't get enough supply. Jensen Huang put it simply: "Our demand is much higher than that."
Investors of every size who kept adding to a company like this have built real wealth. Split-adjusted, NVIDIA shares went from $1.62 in October 2016 to $229.28 on October 9, 2026. That works out to a 14031.78% gain.
Growth is still speeding up. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue reached $96.22B, up 105.8% year over year. Data Center revenue grew 117% to $89.02B. That was the 5th consecutive earnings beat. Third-quarter guidance calls for $108.0B, and that figure includes no China Data Center compute revenue.
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Profits back up the growth. NVIDIA posts a 60.38% operating margin and a 101.49% return on equity. It carries almost no debt: the leverage ratio stands at 0.0726 and interest coverage at 503.4x.
I'm still paying a fair price for the future. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 46 but only about 17 times forward earnings. The yield is just 0.0176%, so my income stocks pay the bills while NVIDIA builds the estate. Even so, management returned about $26.0B to shareholders last quarter and has $99.0B left on its buyback authorization. It also raised the quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is the obvious alternative. Its P/E is about 229, and its non-GAAP gross margin is 56%, compared with NVIDIA's 75.0%. AMD's Data Center unit brought in $6.72 billion last quarter. I'd be paying far more for a smaller, less profitable business.
Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) invites the income side of me. It pays a $0.65 quarterly dividend and has raised it for fifteen consecutive years. However, Broadcom's own filings list heavy debt as a risk, and MarketWatch describes an AI credit scare weighing on Broadcom while NVIDIA has largely avoided it.
NVIDIA now helps finance its own customers, and that worries me. Supply commitments rose to $279B, and guarantee obligations go as high as $108.5B. The company has put nearly $50 billion into frontier AI labs. Huang himself noticed critics who call this "circular financing." If AI spending stalls, those commitments become a burden.
I still hold my thesis because the spending timeline keeps getting longer. Top-five hyperscaler capex is expected to reach nearly $800 billion in 2026 and $1.3 trillion in 2027. Colette Kress said the compute NVIDIA ships goes to investment-grade customers or to customers backed by one. I also size my position so a hard decline doesn't put my retirement at risk (riding a boom is fine as long as the exit is planned, which is the whole point of our free bubble survivor's handbook).
Huang summed up the moment: "Now, compute is revenue." Vera Rubin is already in full production, and supply remains tight at least through the end of fiscal year 28. Every scare that marks down the company selling that compute looks to me like a discount on the next decade.
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