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Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) last split in 2024, when it split 10-for-1. If it hadn't done that, Nvidia's stock would be valued at over $2,000 per share. When Nvidia split its stock back then, it was worth over $1,000 per share, and I think that will be when the next stock split occurs. There are several factors contributing to this, notably the fact that it's part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) (which is weighted based on stock price versus market cap). There are a few stocks in the $800 or higher range that haven't split, but $1,000 is usually the point at which many companies start to consider a split.
For Nvidia to reach $1,000 per share, it would have to quadruple. Considering that Nvidia is already a $5.6 trillion company, that would be a huge rise. In fact, for Nvidia to get to $1,000 per share, it would need a market cap of over $24 trillion. That's a long way off, and may cause investors to think that another stock split won't be coming, maybe ever.
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However, some projections suggest Nvidia could reach that level, maybe not in the not-too-distant future, like 2030. So, how will Nvidia get there? Let's do the math and find out.
First, let's establish some parameters to assess Nvidia's ending valuation. Right now, Nvidia trades for about 29 times earnings, which is down quite a ways from where it traded at this time last year.
The average S&P 500 company trades at about 25.6 times earnings, so a price tag of 30 times earnings is probably pretty cheap. Still, it bakes some conservatism into the estimate. If it's something like 35 times earnings, Nvidia requires a lot less growth to get there.
If we take the average of the two and settle at 32.5 times trailing earnings, it would require Nvidia to produce $745 billion in earnings to obtain a $24.2 trillion valuation. Over the past 12 months, Nvidia's profit margin has reached 64%, which is slightly influenced by investment gains. Nvidia's non-GAAP profit margin excludes this, and in Q2 it was 56%. If we use a 55% profit margin, that would require $1.35 trillion in annual revenue.
Nvidia may not be as far from hitting that figure as one might think. This year, Wall Street analysts estimate Nvidia will generate $412 billion in revenue. Next year, that figure rises to $692 billion. So, by the end of 2027, it will be over halfway there. With Nvidia's revenue only needing to double in the time frame from 2028 to 2030, this projection just got a bit more palatable.
Nvidia has told investors that it expects global annual data center capital expenditures to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030. With the big five artificial intelligence hyperscalers expected to spend about $1.3 trillion next year, that leaves plenty of room for the marketplace to double between 2028 and 2030.
So, can Nvidia hit $1,000 per share? I think so, and it may happen as soon as 2030. It won't be an easy path to get there, and there may be bumps along the way, but if any stock can achieve it, I think it's Nvidia.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: This Will Be Nvidia's Next Stock Split was originally published by The Motley Fool
