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IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) has already made some investors a fortune. The quantum computing stock has transformed from a speculative small-cap company into one with soaring revenue, expanding backlog, and an increasingly diversified platform.
Wall Street expects IonQ's annual revenue to surpass $1 billion by 2028. While that sounds like a setup for attractive gains, there's a catch: Investors are already paying a premium for that future growth. Let's explore what a $5,000 investment in IonQ stock could actually be worth by 2028.
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Management consulting firm McKinsey & Company estimates the quantum computing market could generate between $43 billion and $71 billion in annual revenue by 2035. IonQ hopes to capture a meaningful slice of this market through trapped-ion quantum computing, which uses electrically charged atoms as qubits.
What most investors probably overlook is that IonQ isn't limiting itself to quantum processors. Through a string of acquisitions and internal development, the company has expanded its platform to include networking, sensing, cybersecurity, and semiconductor manufacturing.
Most recently, IonQ's $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology is particularly important. SkyWater provides the company with semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, potentially helping IonQ accelerate product development and reduce dependence on external suppliers.
In addition, IonQ is developing the Superion quantum computing platform, with initial 256-qubit customer deployments targeted for 2027. These initiatives are meant to position IonQ as a vertically integrated supplier across several emerging pockets of the quantum landscape. But smart investors understand that technological leadership and grand ambitions do not automatically translate into attractive stock returns.
IonQ's financial results demonstrate both the opportunities and the risks involved in investing in a pure-play quantum computing developer. During the second quarter, revenue surged 287% year over year to $80.1 million. Meanwhile, remaining performance obligations (RPO), representing contracted revenue not yet recognized, reached approximately $485 million, compared with $122 million one year earlier.
With the acquisition of SkyWater now closed, IonQ raised its 2026 revenue outlook to between $450 million and $460 million. Of course, investors should realize that much of the increase in sales comes from acquired semiconductor manufacturing revenue rather than accelerating demand for quantum computers.
Profitability is my main concern with IonQ. The company reported a second-quarter operating loss of approximately $337 million, up from $160 million in the second quarter of 2025. Although the company carried approximately $2.9 billion in cash and investments at the end of the second quarter, this might not provide as much financial flexibility as you'd think, given IonQ's burn rate.
As of this writing (Oct. 8), IonQ stock trades around $40 and boasts a market capitalization of approximately $16 billion. Wall Street expects roughly $1.1 billion in revenue by 2028, representing extraordinary growth from 2025's $130 million.
IONQ Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts
Here's where things get interesting: Suppose IonQ actually achieves this forecast and trades at a 15-times price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. That would imply a market capitalization of approximately $16 billion. In other words, IonQ could increase revenue more than eightfold from last year and still trade at today's valuation.
Even in a more optimistic scenario where IonQ commands 20 times its 2028 sales, its market capitalization would reach $21.2 billion, representing about a 33% upside. This would turn a $5,000 investment into roughly $6,600. That's an attractive return in just two years but would require near-flawless execution by management and the market to assign a premium valuation multiple.
Both scenarios assume there is no meaningful change in shares outstanding, which hasn't been the case over the last year. IonQ has issued meaningful stock to fund its acquisitions, diluting shareholders in the process.
The theme here is that IonQ stock is already priced for considerable future success. I see IonQ stock as a speculative hold rather than a compelling buy right now. While the company could become a major beneficiary of quantum computing, investors may not necessarily be rewarded with multibagger returns.
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Adam Spatacco has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: A $5,000 Investment in IonQ Could Be Worth This Much by 2028 was originally published by The Motley Fool
