Rich Smith, The Motley Fool Sun, October 11, 2026 at 8:28 AM EDT 6 min read SPCX +1.25% NVDA -0.52% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
It feels like only yesterday, but it's actually been four months since the Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) IPO. Over this time, shares of Elon Musk's famous space company, which began trading at $135, have gyrated wildly, shooting up 56%, then falling 49%, only to flip again and rise 59% from their nadir of $108.
Other space stocks have enjoyed (and suffered) similar runs.
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How much should SpaceX stock cost? And how much are SpaceX's competitors worth? At 200 times forward earnings today, I'm of the opinion that SpaceX stock is overpriced. But if you want to invest in space stocks and are willing to look beyond just the most obvious choice, you just might find some better bargains.
Below, I'll suggest four slightly lower-profile space stocks worth considering -- Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), Redwire (NYSE: RDW), Planet Labs (NYSE: PL), and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) -- and how much they might be worth five years from now.
Let's begin with Rocket Lab, the company most similar to SpaceX in that it builds everything from rockets to spacecraft to satellites -- and will soon have a space communications business similar to Starlink.
At last report, Rocket Lab's two current businesses, launch services and space systems, were generating a combined $769 million per year. (It's also on track to absorb Iridium and its $884 million revenue stream mid-2027.) Rocket Lab isn't yet profitable, but analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence estimate it will become profitable in 2028. My own estimates have Rocket Lab earning its first profit earlier than that -- in 2027 -- assuming its Iridium acquisition happens on schedule.
It's hard to make predictions. That said, consulting giant KPMG estimates that the global space economy is currently worth $433 billion in annual revenue and is on track to hit $600 billion by 2030, with an annual growth rate of approximately 8.5%. Research from McKinsey is even more optimistic, predicting a $1.8 trillion space economy by 2035. This would suggest either a relatively constant growth rate of more than 18%, or perhaps respectable 8.5% growth through 2030, accelerating to 24.5% from 2031 through 2035.
For simplicity's sake, let's assume constant, 18% growth. Applied to $1.65 billion in annual revenue for Rocket Lab and Iridium combined, this implies that by 2030, Rocket Lab might generate $3.8 billion in annual revenue.
It's hard to guess what multiple investors would pay for a business of that size -- but I don't think guessing is necessary here. Even assuming a 10x price-to-sales ratio on the stock, which would be quite expensive, historically speaking, would value Rocket Lab at only $38 billion.
That's below Rocket Lab's market capitalization today, and implies the stock could be "dead money" for years.
Next, we apply the same logic to Redwire, a specialist in space infrastructure that now also boasts a big terrestrial defense business. Between space and defense, Redwire generated $426 million in revenue over the past 12 months.
An 18% growth rate over the next five years could lift Redwire's sales to just under $1 billion by 2030. Whether those sales would be profitable is another story. (Most analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence agree that they won't be.)
In that case, I wouldn't expect investors to pay more than 4x 2030 revenue for Redwire -- $4 billion. The good news here is that Redwire stock costs only about $2.6 billion today, leaving room for about 50% growth over the next five years.
The news for investors in Planet Labs is also encouraging. Owner of one of the world's largest constellations of Earth observation satellites, Planet Labs generated $378 million in sales over the last 12 months. The company is approaching breakeven on a GAAP basis and is already generating positive free cash flow.
An 18% revenue growth rate might lift Planet to $865 million in sales by 2030. For a soon-to-be-profitable space stock, let's assume a 10 sales multiple here as well, implying an $8.6 billion market capitalization in 2030.
With Planet Labs stock valued at only $6.8 billion today, this space stock has some room to grow, too.
Not so for AST SpaceMobile. While the company deserves applause for being the first to prove the concept of cell-to-cell satellite communications, AST stumbled out of the gate.
Its $115 million in trailing-12-month revenue is the smallest among these five space stocks. Five years down the road, assuming 18% growth, AST would be lucky to break $260 million in annual sales -- far too little to justify its current $24.5 billion implied market capitalization.
Invest $1,000 in any of these stocks. By 2030, I'd expect Redwire and Planet Labs to earn you several hundred dollars in profit. SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and especially AST SpaceMobile, I fear, are more likely to lose you money over the next five years.
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Rich Smith has positions in Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs PBC, and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SpaceX Is Public. Here's What $1,000 in Each of These 5 Space Stocks Could Be Worth by 2030. was originally published by The Motley Fool
