Paul Skenes will start for Team USA on Sunday. Troy Taormina-Imagn Images The odds for Sunday’s World Baseball Classic semifinal between Team USA and the Dominican Republic could hardly be tighter.
The Stars and Stripes are a -125 favorite over the Dominican Republic, which essentially makes this game at loanDepot Park in Miami a coin flip.
Paul Skenes will get the start for the Americans, while the Dominican Republic will counter with Luis Severino.
The USA may be the favorite to win this game, and the tournament, but they have not been the most impressive team in this competition. That honor belongs to the Dominican Republic.
You can call into question the quality of opposition that the Dominican Republic has faced, but you can only play who is in front of you, and averaging better than 10 runs per contest is an accomplishment against any schedule.
Whether the Dominicans can keep up that pace against Paul Skenes is another question entirely.
Juan Soto of the Dominican Republic celebrates. Sam Navarro-Imagn Images The Americans won’t ask Skenes to completely shut out an offense that is headlined by Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and Manny Machado, but if the Pittsburgh Pirates ace can keep a lid on the Dominicans, the pendulum swings in the Americans’ favor.
While the Dominicans are built to get ahead and stay ahead, the Americans bring a little bit more to the table in a lower-scoring, chess-match style contest.
There’s still plenty of game-breaking pop in the American lineup, but they can apply pressure in a variety of ways outside of the threat of the long ball. Luis Severino will have his hands full trying to navigate the sluggers in the heart of the order, but the Stars and Stripes can also play a bit of small-ball if the situation calls for it.
The lineups may be a wash, but the pitching matchup favors Team USA, and I think the Americans simply have more paths to victory than the Dominican Republic does in this specific matchup.
You can feel comfortable laying a bit of juice with Team USA on Sunday, or just play them to win the tournament at +140.
The Play: Team USA moneyline (-125, bet365 Sportsbook)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
