Gold Just Fell to a Two-Month Low as the Fed Signals Another Hike Omor Ibne Ehsan Thu, October 8, 2026 at 10:45 AM EDT 4 min read GC=F -0.00% NEM +0.97% B +0.67% B +0.67% GDX +0.89% Explore stocks on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
FOMC minutes signaling another rate hike sent GLD down 2% and GDX down 3%, with the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest since 2002.
Barrick dropped 4% as fixed mining costs amplify gold's losses, and Newmont's margins face risk with spot gold trading below its $4,500 guidance assumption.
China bought gold for its 23rd straight month, but Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold target to $4,900 amid further Fed hike risk.
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Spot gold closed at $4,109.90 an ounce on Oct 7, 2026. That was a one-session fall of 1.28% and the lowest level since Aug 5, 2026. December gold futures settled at $4,140.70, down $46.40.
The selloff followed minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held Sept. 16, 2026. The minutes stated that "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end." The Fed raised rates at that meeting, and the target range now stands at 3.75% to 4.00%.
Silver fell more than gold, down 2.55% to $59.67, and mining stocks fell even harder.
Gold pays no interest, so rising Treasury yields make bonds more attractive than bullion.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.36%, its highest level since 2002. The US dollar index held above 102, a level last reached in April 2025. Gold is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes each ounce more expensive for foreign buyers.
Spot gold set a record of $5,589.38 on Jan 28, 2026, and has since fallen about 26%. Investors who bought near the top are down sharply, although those who bought a year ago are still ahead. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) is up 2.63% over 12 months.
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GLD fell 1.67% to $375.88. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) fell 3.13% to $85.46. Newmont (NYSE:NEM) lost 2.45% to $113.54, and Barrick Mining (NYSE:B) fell 3.78% to $39.18.
Mining costs are largely fixed, so profit margins move more than the gold price. In Newmont's second quarter, its realized gold price rose about 33% from a year earlier while costs applicable to sales rose just 4%.
That leverage also works in reverse. Newmont's 2026 guidance assumes gold at $4,500 an ounce, and spot gold now trades below that level.
China's central bank added gold for the 23rd consecutive month in September. Its holdings rose from 76.73 million ounces to 77.47 million ounces.
Peter Grant of Zaner Metals said "official gold demand is the main supporting factor," but warned that "rates are going to continue to be higher for longer." He expects gold at $4,400 at year-end. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target to $4,900 and said gold could fall to $4,400 if the Fed hikes.
The bull case rests on central banks that have kept buying and miner leverage that would lift these stocks quickly if the metal turns higher, but the bear case is stronger. The Fed may still hike, the dollar is at a multi-year high, the 10-year yield is at its highest since 2002, and miners are falling faster than gold.
Gold stocks will likely stay under pressure until interest-rate direction becomes clearer. GLD has held up better than GDX. It fell 1.67% against 3.13% for GDX and carries no mining costs or operating risk.
Spot gold closing back above $4,500, the price built into Newmont's 2026 guidance, would ease the pressure on miners' margins. Until then, the margins in that plan are at risk.
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