Prediction: Tesla Stock Has a Wild Card That Could Change Its Long-Term Value Vandita Jadeja Thu, October 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT 4 min read TSLA -1.47% Trade Tesla on Coinbase Trading disclosure Trading disclosure The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading. Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational.
TSLA trades at 176x 2027 earnings at $381; reaching $600 requires a 57% gain and valuing Tesla as an AI platform, not an automaker.
FSD subscriptions surged 56% to 1.48 million and Robotaxi unsupervised miles are growing over 10% weekly, making autonomy the stock's key variable.
Prediction markets put a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by end of 2027 at 56.5% probability, a wild card Wall Street hasn't priced in.
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The automaker's CEO has called 2026 a "massive CapEx year," and the results show it. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is building Robotaxi fleets, Optimus production lines, AI chips and a semiconductor fab simultaneously.
On the second-quarter call, Elon Musk said, "This is going to be a great year for Tesla, I think. One of our best years ever. And then I think next year will be even better."
Shares are down 15.29% year-to-date at $380.98, though they've gained 7.6% over the past month. Autonomy is the key variable for the stock.
The consensus price target is $395.57, only about 4% above current levels. Analysts are split, with 19 buys, 20 holds and 4 sells. The 2027 EPS forecast is $2.1630, down from $2.5615 90 days ago.
The Street models roughly 14% revenue growth and 23% EPS growth in 2027. Tesla has exceeded revenue estimates for four straight quarters. Second-quarter EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.5367 estimate as operating expenses rose 47%.
UBS analyst Joseph Spak raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $391 from $385 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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Tesla trades at about 176x 2027 earnings. At $600, that multiple would rise to roughly 277x. Against the bullish analyst estimate of $3.65, it would be about 164x. That multiple tops auto-sector valuations, so the case for $600 rests on valuing Tesla as an AI platform.
Robotaxi expansion: Tesla has logged more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised driving, with miles growing "more than 10% a week."
FSD monetization: Active subscriptions reached 1.48 million, up 56%, and Services revenue rose 50%.
Optimus: Musk said, "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever." The Fremont line targets 1M robots/year.
AI5 chips: Volume production could begin around the middle of next year.
Energy storage: Deployments reached 13.5 gigawatt hours, up 53% from the prior quarter.
SpaceX: Prediction-market traders put the probability of a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by end of 2027 at 0.565.
Reaching $600 would require a gain of about 57%. Tesla posted triple-digit returns in 2020 and 2013. Over 10 years, shares are up 2806.62%. With a beta of 1.845 and a 52-week range of $297.38 to $498.83, large swings are normal.
Operating margin was 1.4% last quarter, free cash flow came in at -$1.092 billion, and 2026 capital spending is expected to exceed $25 billion. Tesla has $43.524 billion in cash to fund it.
Getting there requires four things: Robotaxi miles must compound, FSD subscriptions must climb, Optimus must reach production, and heavy spending must lower costs. If that happens, view could shift quickly. Gains of this magnitude are rare in any single year, and the plan for oversized 2027 gains is outlined.
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