Is Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) Below Fair Value On Its Daisy Milano Contract Extension? Simply Wall St Thu, October 8, 2026 at 4:14 AM EDT 4 min read VAU.AX -1.34% GC=F +0.31% Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) extended its mining services agreement with Macmahon Underground at the Daisy Milano Gold Mine in Western Australia, keeping the contractor on site through October 2028 and reinforcing long-term operational continuity.
Recent trading has been choppy for Vault Minerals, with the share price down 11.6% over the past month, even after a 20.5% gain across 90 days. A 27.2% one year total shareholder return and very strong five year total shareholder return suggest that longer term momentum remains intact.
Scan for other miners with similar contract-backed production visibility by reviewing the curated list of 36 elite gold producer stocks alongside Vault Minerals as part of your research.
Vault Minerals now couples contract-backed operations with a share price that has slipped over the past month. Strong long term returns are one thing. Is the current A$5.87 tag still fair value?
On RockeTeller's valuation work, Vault Minerals screens on a fair value of A$8.67 per share, versus the recent A$5.87 close, which leaves a wide gap that the market has not closed. That spread sits on top of a business already producing gold at scale, rather than a pre-production story.
The investment story is no longer an early-stage exploration story. Vault is already a real producer, with multiple operating mines, large resources, meaningful reserves, strong cash generation, and a debt-free balance sheet. In FY25, Vault produced 381,000 oz of gold at AISC of A$2,422/oz, with cash and bullion of A$686 million and no debt as of 30 June 2025.
See why 26 investors see Vault Minerals as 32% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of A$8.67 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the Regis merger outcome and any setback in sustaining free cash flow at recent levels could quickly challenge the 32% undervaluation story around Vault Minerals.
Find out about the key risks to this Vault Minerals narrative.
The RockeTeller fair value work points to A$8.67 per share, yet the market is asking buyers to pay a P/E of 21.8x for Vault Minerals. That is well above the Australian metals and mining sector on 11.9x and a peer average of 12x, and it also sits higher than a fair ratio of 16.4x that the market could move towards over time.
If earnings growth or sentiment cools, that gap can matter in a very practical way. It can limit how much upside investors get from any catch up to intrinsic value and it can increase the risk of a valuation reset. This may be the price of quality, or it may be a signal to seek a wider margin of safety.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Room for optimism around Vault Minerals is clear, yet the real edge goes to investors who stress test the numbers themselves and move quickly. To weigh that sentiment against your own assessment of risks and upside, start with the 3 key rewards.
If you like the mix of contract-backed production and valuation work around Vault Minerals, broaden your watchlist using focused stock ideas that match your preferred risk and return profile.
Target potential mispricing by scanning companies that pass strict quality filters and may trade below estimated worth through the 5 high quality undervalued stocks.
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Dial down portfolio risk by prioritising firms with cleaner finances and sturdier fundamentals in the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (12 results).
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include VAU.AX.
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