Make New York Post a Preferred Source Atlanta Dream forward Angel Reese (5) stares at New York Liberty center Jonquel Jones (35) after a basket in the fourth quarter during game one of the second round of the WNBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect The Liberty had an extra day to mull over their Game 1 loss to the Dream in their WNBA semifinal series. After two days, the Liberty have a chance to even the series at 1-1, but they’ll need to fix a few things to overcome a Dream squad growing in confidence with every win.
Oddsmakers give the home team the slight edge in Wednesday’s Game 2 with the Dream sitting at -1.5 ahead of the matchup, down from the opening number of -3.5. The total has dropped as well since opening lines were released, moving from 172.5 to 170.5.
Allisha Gray’s injury looms large over Game 2. She only played 11 minutes after suffering a hand injury early in the game, but as the Dream’s leading scorer, her presence will be missed.
Atlanta has thrived offensively in the postseason thanks to contributions from across the board, but Gray, who was their leading scorer in the regular season, is tough to replace. The upside for the Dream is they can lean on their defense, which has been as spectacular in the playoffs as it was in the regular season.
The Dream paced the league in steals per game (9.1) and turnovers forced per game (16) during the regular season and those numbers have exploded in the playoffs. The sample size is small of course, but the Dream are averaging 13.3 steals and forcing 21 turnovers through three playoff games.
Led by Defensive Player of the Year Angel Reese, who was flying around the court in Game 1, the Dream were able to weather a late run from the Liberty and put the game away to go up 1-0 in the series.
New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) shoots past Atlanta Dream forward Naz Hillmon (00) and forward Angel Reese (5) during the second quarter of game one of the second round of the WNBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect The Liberty should be concerned by a few things from Game 1.
They got six points from their bench, gave up 32 points off turnovers and were outscored 18-0 on fast break points.
The turnovers have been an issue for them all season and it’s unlikely that will change as the Dream will turn up the pressure and try to beat them in the possession game to fill the scoring void Gray will leave.
They can avoid compounding the problem and giving up easy points on the break by simply getting back in transition and avoiding telegraphed crosscourt passes.
I expect Game 2 will be even more physical on both sides — Jonquel Jones said as much in the postgame Sunday — which should slow the pace down in this game.
And while DeWanna Bonner was awesome off the bench in Game 1, and should be good in Game 2, I don’t think we can expect back-to-back 20-point games from her. That, combined with Gray’s absence, should bring the scoring down.
This game will be decided on the defensive end and I think we’re headed for a lower-scoring affair.
The Pick: Under 170.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
